944
FXUS62 KGSP 300511
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
111 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Thursday: A few slight adjustments with the
temperatures given the cooler temps in obs from the drier air moving
in. Other than that, forecast for the near term is on track.

A dry, reinforcing cold front will push east of the area overnight
behind the departing shortwave, promoting a further decline in
dewpoints. Despite temps also trending a few degrees below normal,
the drying should make for a fog-free night once again, except for
the Little TN Valley, where patchy fog may develop. Temps likewise
end up a little below normal for Thursday. Another embedded
shortwave will rotate through the trough late Thursday but without
enough moisture to justify mentionable PoPs. Mixing won`t be as
deep, leading to lighter winds on Thursday. Cumulus will develop
once again Thursday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1247 AM EDT Thursday: The first part of the weekend still
looks relatively quiet as a mid/upper ridge builds in Friday and
Friday night, which finally brings a center of sfc high pressure
down over the Carolinas on Saturday morning. Friday should be
our last day of below normal temps and dry air in this string,
because once the ridge axis crosses overhead and moves toward the
coast on Saturday, the high gets pushed offshore and the moisture
will start to move back up from the Gulf of Mexico. Think that
Saturday afternoon should be rain-free at this time, with temps
returning to normal. However, Saturday night there will be a small
chance that showers could move in from the southwest or develop
over the southern mountains in the light southerly upslope flow
overnight. Some of the guidance is more aggressive with bringing
some precip in from the west, perhaps because of some sort of
loosely organized convective system developing closer to a cold
front to our west Saturday afternoon/evening and then making a
run at the mountains. Prefer to keep the precip probs low over
the mtns until we get a better sense for that potential in the HREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday: Diurnally enhanced summer-like
thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for the latter half of
the upcoming weekend as a quasi-zonal wavy pattern develops atop the
SE CONUS.  In fact, there is little discernible change expected for
the daily sensible weather through the early part of next week as
triggering mechanisms for daily thunderstorm chances will be driven
by a mix of synoptic scale s/wv and mesoscale features, along with
the typical terrain aided forcing here in the southern Appalachians.
Temperatures will be warming through the period, maximums rising to
the early June climo on Monday, but into the upper 80s by Wednesday.
Along with a daily increase in sfc dwpts will promote summertime
heat and humidity by the middle of next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail through the end of the
TAF period. A few cirrus clouds are streaming across the area and
should clear out by daybreak. CIGS will remain VFR with some BKN/FEW
at KCLT through at least 13z. By Thursday afternoon, some mid-level
cumulus are likely outside the mountains, but will remain VFR. Wind
gusts have diminished at KAVL and all sites have gone light to calm.
A strong area of high pressure will shift eastward and toggle wind
directions more N/NE through the period for terminals outside the
mountains. This shouldn`t cause any issues as wind speeds are still
expected to be light. FG/BR is not anticipated at any terminal given
the much drier air continuing to move into the region.

Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather through Saturday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances may return by the end of the weekend and into
next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...CP