Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
846 FXUS66 KHNX 022211 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 311 PM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Gusty west winds will redevelop across the Mojave Desert Slopes this evening through early Monday morning. Winds will be stronger and more widespread across the Mojave Slopes on Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. 2. A significant warming trend will take place this week. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills, the Kern River Valley, and the Kern County Desert on Wednesday and Thursday. 3. Temperatures are forecast to lower slightly on Friday with more cooling over the weekend. Temperatures are expected to still be a few degrees above normal by Sunday. 4. The anticipated heat later this week will lead to increased snowmelt over the Sierra Nevada. Colder and higher flows along rivers and waterways. && .DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough has brought some cooler air to the region with 24 hour temperature trends running down around 5 to 10 degrees. Maximum temperatures this afternoon are expected to top out right around climatological averages for this time of the year; which is generally the upper 80s in the San Joaquin Valley. Little changes are expected on Monday with perhaps a degree or two of warming for some areas. Gusty westerly winds are continuing across the Mojave Desert Slopes. The SFO-LAS pressure gradient has been hovering near 10 mb for the last 24 hours. Gusts are currently around 35 mph and will likely increase this evening. But probabilities for gusts of 45 mph or higher are generally less than 50 percent. However, probabilities are much higher and more widespread on Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. Probabilities for gusts of 45 mph or higher jump to 70 to 100 percent early Monday evening. An upper ridge will begin building over the region on Tuesday then strengthen through Thursday. A significant warming trend will result with maximum temperatures forecast to be 15 to 20 degrees above average by Thursday. Here are the probabilities for a high temperature of 105 degrees or higher for locations across the San Joaquin Valley. Wed Thu Fri Merced 41% 61% 36% Madera 41% 61% 36% Fresno 56% 76% 51% Reedley 31% 56% 36% Lemoore 41% 66% 36% Hanford 41% 66% 41% Visalia 51% 66% 46% Porterville 41% 56% 36% Delano 41% 56% 31% Bakersfield 41% 61% 36% An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills, the Kern River Valley, and the Kern County Desert from 11 AM Wednesday morning until 8 PM PDT Thursday evening. This is to highlight a major risk for heat- related illnesses for much of the population, especially those who are heat sensitive and those without effective cooling and/ or adequate hydration. There is potential for Heat Warnings to be extended into Friday. Temperatures will trend lower during the weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300>317-319-321-332-337>339. && $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford