016
FXUS63 KICT 010529
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, especially
  across central and eastern KS

- Several showers/storm chances through the weekend and possibly
  into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

As of 130 PM, a rinse and repeat pattern was ongoing across the
Plains with multiple remnant MCVs spinning about. The two impacting
the weather locally are position across central KS and northeast OK.
To begin with, the MCV across northeast OK continues to rotate
showers/storms north and northwestward across portions of Labette,
Neosho, and Allen counties. The expectation is for the MCV to
gradually move east this evening, shunting the best rain chances
eastward. The second MCV across central KS has been relatively
benign thus far with mostly dry conditions. Latest visible satellite
imagery reveals a deepening cumulus field across central KS with
mixed-layer inhibition approaching zero. With the nearby MCV,
scattered convection is probable this afternoon from Barton and
Russell counties and points east. Effective shear remains meager,
therefore organize convection is not expected. That being said,
precipitable water values remain above 1.2" which supports heavy
rain. As diurnal cooling ensue this evening, convection should
decrease in coverage.

Like prior days, additional convection is expected this afternoon
across the High Plains with a gradual march eastward. Model guidance
is good agreement with any upscale growth across eastern CO/western
KS will tend to move more southeasterly overnight and into the best
low-level theta-e. Therefore, shower/storm chances are quite low
overnight area-wide.

The active pattern will continue through the weekend and possibly
into next week with weak perturbations translating across the Plains
atop a weakly to moderately unstable environment. Confidence is
increasing for the active pattern continuing into next weekend with
the potential for an amplified midlevel ridge axis sliding into the
Plains decreasing. This result would keep shower/storm chances going
and temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MVFR cigs are expected to expand in coverage tonight with some
IFR cigs developing during the predawn hours. Patchy fog may
also develop but widespread dense fog is not anticipated. Light
winds will prevail through the period with MVFR cigs gradually
mixing out during the morning hours on Saturday with VFR
returning on Saturday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will remain too low to mention in TAFs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...MWM