920
FXUS63 KICT 282028
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
328 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thursday night/Friday will have the best chance for more numerous
showers and storms to affect the region

- Periodic storm chances continue for the weekend into next
  week, severe weather risk will remain low

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Lingering mid-level baroclinic zone with some persistent warm air
advection will continue to trigger elevated showers and storms
through the afternoon/evening across central/south central Kansas.
Severe weather is not expected. Meanwhile current satellite water
vapor imagery shows a upper level short wave over New Mexico moving
eastward. As this wave approaches western Texas/southwest Kansas
scattered to numerous storms should re-develop in those areas later
this afternoon/tonight, and most of this activity will remain west
of central/south central Kansas tonight. The mid-level baroclinic
zone looks to linger across the region through Wednesday and with
some weak warm moist advection this could spark off additional
elevated showers/storms during the day. Storms should redevelop over
the high plains area eastern Colorado/western Kansas Wednesday
afternoon/evening, as a low level moist upslope regime gets
underway. This activity will then spread eastward and increase in
coverage as moisture transport/low level jet increases for Wednesday
night. Again severe weather risk looks low with weaker winds aloft
expected.

Thursday - Monday

The upper-level trough currently churning off the coast of
Washington state is expected to produce the first of a series of
shortwaves that will roll off the High Plains and across Kansas on
Thursday. Coupled with moderate instability and shear, multicell
showers and storms are expected to arise as a result of this
synoptic forcing. There are limiting factors that will inhibit the
severe potential during this time, but a handful of storms producing
small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

The wet pattern is anticipated to continue as the aforementioned
shortwaves continue to bring chances of rain through Monday. Warmer
temperatures are expected in the wake of this active period as we
progress further into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals throughout the period.
Elevated showers and storms will remain to be the primary aviation
concerns through the afternoon as a baroclinic zone sits over
central KS. Confidence in the timing and location of these storms is
low considering the stationary nature of this zone, so AMDs will be
issued as needed. Chances for showers and storms will decrease
through the evening.

Light winds are anticipated overnight. The early morning could see
the return of a few elevated showers and storms similar to today,
but neglected to mention these since confidence in the timing and
location remains low at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ/JK
AVIATION...JK