Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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622 FXUS63 KICT 282327 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 627 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thursday night/Friday will have the best chance for more numerous showers and storms to affect the region - Periodic storm chances continue for the weekend into next week, severe weather risk will remain low && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Lingering mid-level baroclinic zone with some persistent warm air advection will continue to trigger elevated showers and storms through the afternoon/evening across central/south central Kansas. Severe weather is not expected. Meanwhile current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level short wave over New Mexico moving eastward. As this wave approaches western Texas/southwest Kansas scattered to numerous storms should re-develop in those areas later this afternoon/tonight, and most of this activity will remain west of central/south central Kansas tonight. The mid-level baroclinic zone looks to linger across the region through Wednesday and with some weak warm moist advection this could spark off additional elevated showers/storms during the day. Storms should redevelop over the high plains area eastern Colorado/western Kansas Wednesday afternoon/evening, as a low level moist upslope regime gets underway. This activity will then spread eastward and increase in coverage as moisture transport/low level jet increases for Wednesday night. Again severe weather risk looks low with weaker winds aloft expected. Thursday - Monday The upper-level trough currently churning off the coast of Washington state is expected to produce the first of a series of shortwaves that will roll off the High Plains and across Kansas on Thursday. Coupled with moderate instability and shear, multicell showers and storms are expected to arise as a result of this synoptic forcing. There are limiting factors that will inhibit the severe potential during this time, but a handful of storms producing small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. The wet pattern is anticipated to continue as the aforementioned shortwaves continue to bring chances of rain through Monday. Warmer temperatures are expected in the wake of this active period as we progress further into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period with light/variable winds becoming east to southeast late tonight and Wednesday. Scattered elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible again later tonight into Wednesday, not too dissimilar to today. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ/JK AVIATION...KED