973
FXUS62 KILM 020548
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
148 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this
coming week. Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid
air northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday. A cold front could
reach the Carolinas by Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
As of 1:45 AM EDT, ridge axis lies just east of the area,
pushing into the Outer Banks. Meanwhile, the shortwave is moving
its way through north Georgia, bottoming out near Atlanta and
picking up again near Athens. PVA ahead of this shortwave is a
bit stronger than I expected, and has brought enough forcing to
squeeze out some light rain at Thomson, GA.

Some of the high-resolution models are starting to pick up on
this activity (not that it`s much to speak of). May need to very
slightly increase the rain chances for the SC Pee Dee region as
we edge closer to sunrise this morning, but I want to see more
out of the trends first. This shortwave carries more moisture
with it, but it doesn`t seem to travel fast enough before it
runs into much drier air east of the SC Midlands. Broadly
speaking, much ado about nothing.

Elsewhere, updated 06Z TAF discussion found below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Highly amplified ridge axis now over the area while weak high
pressure resides at the surface. The ridge will remain
progressive in nature through Sunday pushed off or weakened by
weak shortwaves from the west. The overall forecast remains
consistent as the airmass modifies from both a temperature and
dewpoint standpoint along with increasing intervals of mid level
clouds. Some guidance wants to develop a few showers late
Sunday afternoon mainly western areas but this seems a stretch
at this point. Temperatures will tack on about five degrees or
so from todays values. Lows in the lower 60s with highs in the
middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Return flow in full swing around offshore high pressure for the
start of the week. This will warm temps to seasonable for the
short term, with lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs Monday
in the mid to upper 80s. A weak mid-upper ridge in place Monday,
but there will still be enough moisture and forcing with the
sea breeze to produce widely scattered afternoon storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Slightly above normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday
with continued WAA and slowly increasing dewpoints. Despite
lingering weak ridge aloft Tuesday into early Wednesday, still
expecting diurnal convection along sea breeze and Piedmont
trough both days. Warmth and moisture peak on Thursday providing
plenty of instability, with some upper level support combining
with local boundaries to produce scattered storms. Current
forecast has heat indices Thursday approaching triple digits. A
front is forecasted to move across sometime Friday, associated
with a stacked low over the northern Great Lakes, with a drying
trend possible heading into next weekend behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR for the 06Z TAF period. There is a low potential for
afternoon convective showers Sunday after 18Z affecting KFLO and
KLBT, but confidence is much too low to include in the TAFs.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday,
becoming a little more widespread Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Quiet as can be across the waters through
Sunday. The weak return/southeast flow of 10-12 knots at best
will continue essentially unimpeded. Significant seas will
represent the winds well hovering around 2 feet.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Southerly flow at 5-10 kts,
with afternoon gusts around 15 kts, continues around offshore
high pressure Sunday night through Wednesday. Seas around 2 feet
from SE swell and S wind chop. South-southwest winds pick up on
Thursday as a front approaches, with sustained speeds
increasing to 15-20 kts. Seas in turn build to 3-4 ft late
Thursday as the southerly component increases. Chances for late
night/early morning storms over the waters increase through mid
week, with thunderstorm chances all day Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Climatological Spring 2024 numbers are in and record-breaking
warmth occurred at Wilmington, NC where temperature records
date back to 1874.

Wilmington recorded its warmest spring on record with an average
March-May temperature of 66.4 degrees, breaking the record of
66.3 set back in the Spring of 2012. Although high temperatures
were warm, it was exceptional warmth for overnight lows that
really helped break the record.

In North Myrtle Beach this was the second warmest spring since
records began with an average spring temperature of 65.7
degrees. 2012 remains the warmest spring on record there.

Inland at Florence, SC and Lumberton, NC, both stations recorded
their sixth warmest spring on record with average temperatures
of 66.6 and 65.3 degrees, respectively.

Detailed spring climatological data is available in the seasonal
climate summaries (CLS) text products issued earlier this
afternoon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/VAO
CLIMATE...