088
FXUS62 KILM 010504
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
104 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably mild temperatures are expected through today as
dry high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the eastern
Carolinas. The high will push offshore Sunday, bringing warmer
and more humid air across the area with isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible most of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Skies have cleared and only minor tweaks to temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Highly amplified cyclonic flow will move off to the east
tonight being replaced by a highly amplified ridge. At this
surface very quiet weather will continue and with few clouds and
lighter winds tonight an application of the radiational tool is
warranted for lows. Only some uncertainty of high clouds to the
west prevents ideal conditions. Expect good coverage of lower
50s and even near 50 for final numbers in the cooler areas.
Strong insolation/air mass modification leads to highs Saturday
in the lower to perhaps middle 80s in places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather continues through end of the weekend. After below
normal temps Saturday night/Sunday morning in the upper
50s-60F, temps warm to mid 80s daytime Sunday. Center of low-mid
level ridge overhead early Sunday shifts offshore during the
day, with subsidence lingering across the area keeping the area
dry. Far northwest areas may see a stray storm Sunday afternoon,
where subsidence is a bit weaker, but pops are less than 20%.
Increasing return flow around offshore high will bring low temps
in the mid 60s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Meteorological summer begins June 1 (Saturday) and next week
will certainly feel like summer. With high pressure offshore
supporting WAA and moisture advection from the SW through late
week, and a pseudo-zonal flow aloft with multiple weak impulses
moving across, the week will be characterized by slightly above
normal temperatures and typical summertime diurnal popcorn
convection. Have pops limited to slight chance Monday and
Tuesday afternoons, as instability at this time looks meager,
with increasing storm chances Wednesday and Thursday as
dewpoints reach 70F and max temps around 90F. A front is
forecasted to move through the area towards end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence VFR forecast. This TAF is a wind forecast with
light northeast through sunrise. Southeast winds are expected
between 14 and 16 UTC as the center high pressure over northeast
North Carolina will slowly to the east. The sea/land
temperature difference will be enough to enhance winds speed at
the coastal TAF sites by a few knots over the synoptic flow.
Winds are expected to become less than 4 knots after 01 UTC.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...The current northerly flow hanging out near
15 knots should be the maximum wind speed through Saturday. The
high pressure system responsible for the wind drifts to the
east/southeast in time with a more northeasterly component
developing overnight. Finally a more easterly (sea breeze aided)
flow develops later Saturday. Significant seas are probably at
their highest as well with the 2-4 foot range drifting downward
to around two feet Saturday.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Southeast flow Saturday
night will turn southerly on Sunday, and remain out of the south
or southwest through late next week as typical summertime
pattern sets up around Bermuda high. Winds speeds sustained 5-10
kts Sunday through Wednesday, with afternoon gusts around 15
kts. Similarly, seas remain around 2 ft Saturday night through
(at least) Wednesday, predominantly as SE swell with a wind wave
mixed in.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RH
MARINE...SHK/VAO