Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
725 FNUS72 KILM 171023 FWSILM Spot Forecast for Black River Rx...The Nature Conservancy National Weather Service Wilmington NC 623 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 17. If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374. .DISCUSSION... Isolated thunderstorm possible this afternoon, with increasing rain chances after midnight tonight. Southerly winds remain relatively light through Saturday. Rain chances will continue this weekend as a storm system advances eastward across the Southeast. Low chance for severe weather, mainly strong winds, on Saturday. Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable. Fog potential for tonight is Low. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 84. Min humidity........56 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Max mixing hgt......5100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 6 to 10 mph. Max vent rate.......Fair (50854 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........6. Max ADI.............59. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........29 39 36 39 51 63 75 74 74 73 Weather cov.....PTY SCH SCH SCH SCH Weather type....FOG RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH Temp............67 72 76 79 80 82 83 83 81 80 RH..............96 85 75 65 61 57 56 56 60 63 20 FT wind dir..N N N S S S S S S SE 20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 20 FT wind gust.1 1 1 3 3 4 5 6 6 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.8 1.7 3.6 4.4 4.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 2.8 Transp wind dir.W W W W SW W SW W W W Transp wind spd.7 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 Stability.......A A A A A A B B B B LVORI...........6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ADI.............7 6 13 32 45 55 54 59 49 28 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 5 10 25 36 44 47 51 42 23 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR PR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers overnight. Min temperature.....Around 68. Max humidity........100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms overnight. Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 9 to 12 mph. Min vent rate.......Poor (4115 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........9. Min ADI.............4. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........76 79 82 77 73 68 74 80 86 86 87 88 Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Temp............78 75 73 72 71 70 70 70 69 69 69 69 RH..............69 76 83 87 91 94 96 97 98 98 98 98 20 FT wind dir..SE SE S S SE SE SE SE SE SE S S 20 FT wind spd..4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 20 FT wind gust.6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Transp wind dir.S S SE S S S S S S S S SE Transp wind spd.9 10 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 Stability.......B F F F F F F F F F F F LVORI...........3 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 ADI.............27 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Vrate mph-ft/1K.21 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 83. Min humidity........71 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning and early afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Max mixing hgt......3300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph. Max vent rate.......Marginal (34251 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........9. Max ADI.............42. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........87 83 77 76 80 72 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE Temp............69 70 74 79 81 82 RH..............99 100 91 81 74 71 20 ft wind......S 3 S 3 S 4 SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 20 ft wind gust.5 6 7 8 9 9 Mix hgt (ft)....500 900 1600 2400 3300 2600 Transport wind..S 9 SW 12 SW 14 SW 14 SW 10 SW 12 Stability.......F B C C B B LVORI...........9 5 4 3 3 3 ADI.............4 13 27 38 42 36 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 Vrate mph-ft/1K.5 10 21 33 34 28 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...Oliva Requested by...Nathan Burmester Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2414485.0/ILM .DELDT 05/17/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org