824
FXUS63 KIND 300946
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
546 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather today with plentiful sunshine and highs in the
  low-mid 70s; Dry conditions persist through Friday

- Rain chances Saturday into Sunday

- Warming trend this weekend into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Expect another beautiful day ahead with temperatures in the
70s as surface high pressure remains centered over the region. This
combined with dewpoints in the 40s will make it feel very
comfortable. Current satellite imagery shows little to no cloud
cover across Indiana due to strong subsidence. Mostly clear skies
should continue through the period, but some diurnal cu will develop
this afternoon once convective temperatures in the low-mid 70s are
reached. Surface high pressure overhead will keep the pressure
gradient very weak resulting in light winds.

Quiet conditions persist into tonight with the upper ridging and
surface high pressure still centered over the region. Guidance shows
the surface high gradually shifting eastward late today into tonight
which will allow winds to become more easterly. Expect another cool
night in the low 50s under optimal radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

During the long term period we`ll trend gradually toward positive
midlevel height anomalies as broad low amplitude ridging builds
across much of the country. The subtropical jet will diminish and
the polar jet will shift northward, signaling that we`re getting
deeper into the warm season. Sensible weather changes for us will
primarily be the gradual warming that comes along with increased
ridging, and occasional precipitation driven by minor shortwave
perturbations. These smaller scale features do introduce some chaos
in the ensembles with timing and amplitude differences growing by
early next week. So it`s difficult for us to narrow down a shorter
window of higher precipitation probabilities at this time.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicate one weak southern
stream shortwave trough bringing rain showers to the area later
Saturday through early Sunday. Stacked nature of this system, its
low-latitude origins, and weakening trend suggest poor midlevel
lapse rates and limited instability for thunder.

The majority of ensemble members point toward eastern troughing
developing and generally dry and below normal precipitation pattern
evolving by late in the week and into the Day 8-14 period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 546 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Impacts:

- VFR conditions throughout the forecast period

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period as surface high
pressure remains centered over the region. Expect winds to remain
light. Wind direction will be northerly trough daybreak before
veering to northeasterly during the day and eventually easterly this
evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...Melo