227
FXUS63 KIND 310122
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
922 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another night with lows near 50 tonight.

- Showers and a few storms expected Saturday.

- Warming trend going into next week with periodic storm chances.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Spectacular late spring evening in progress across central Indiana
with clear skies and comfortable temperatures in the upper 60s and
lower 70s as we just pass sunset.

The forecast is in excellent shape for overnight. High pressure
remains the primary feature across the region and will keep clear
skies and light winds across the forecast area. Lows will bottom out
primarily in the lower and mid 50s by daybreak Friday although a few
spots may sneak into the upper 40s over eastern counties.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Expect another beautiful day ahead with temperatures in the
70s as surface high pressure remains centered over the region. This
combined with dewpoints in the 40s will make it feel very
comfortable. Current satellite imagery shows little to no cloud
cover across Indiana due to strong subsidence. Mostly clear skies
should continue through the period, but some diurnal cu will develop
this afternoon once convective temperatures in the low-mid 70s are
reached. Surface high pressure overhead will keep the pressure
gradient very weak resulting in light winds.

Quiet conditions persist into tonight with the upper ridging and
surface high pressure still centered over the region. Guidance shows
the surface high gradually shifting eastward late today into tonight
which will allow winds to become more easterly. Expect another cool
night in the low 50s under optimal radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Friday Night Through Sunday.

The most active weather of the period is expected Friday night into
Saturday as the aforementioned low pressure system exits the Plains
and moves into the Ohio Valley. Models have a solid handle on both
the timing and strength of the low pressure system which allows for
higher than normal confidence on the forecast progression. The
surface low is expected to track across southwest Illinois to near
Chicago with Indiana within the warm sector of the low, but a
general lack of instability will limit the thunder potential.  Much
of the rain will be driven by strong isentropic lift with periods of
moderate to briefly heavy rainfall. Total amounts generally
expected to be between a half inch and an inch through Sunday.

Precipitation is expected to begin during the morning hours Saturday
with a weak dry slot arriving by the afternoon. This dry window may
be short as the cold front quickly pushes through behind the main
round of precipitation with additional showers and storms as early
as mid afternoon. The overall strength of this low pressure system
is much lower than the earlier week storm, so not expecting much CAA
or backend showers for Sunday as skies begin to gradually clear.

Monday Through Thursday.

Forecast confidence quickly begins to fall off next week as the flow
aloft becomes much more stagnant and the pattern becomes more driven
by mesoscale factors that are very uncertain this far out. There
does look to be at least occasional showers and thunderstorms which
will generally be diurnally driven so will focus POPs highest in the
18Z to 00Z timeframe.  Surface flow will generally remain southerly
through the week which will keep temperatures just above normal with
much higher dewpoints of mid to upper 60s. A more deeply wrapped up
low looks likely towards the end of the week which should bring a
relief from the more humid air and warmth. Severe weather looks
unlikely through the week, but can`t rule out a strong pulse
thunderstorm or two.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 610 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Diurnally driven cu already in the process of diminishing and should
be completely gone by 00Z or shortly after. High pressure to our
east and deep subsidence through the column will maintain mostly
clear skies throughout the forecast period with just a subtle
increase in cirrus late Friday. Light and variable winds overnight
will transition to southeasterly on Friday at around 10kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Ryan