288
FXUS63 KIWX 292316
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
716 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions return tonight through early Saturday with
  near or slightly below normal temperatures.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist
  Saturday into the middle of next week, focused on Sat/Sat
  night and Wed/Thu.

- Above normal temperatures and increasing humidity will
  dominate Sunday through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

The trough that brought the somewhat cooler conditions and
rounds of showers and storms will exit to the east over the next
12 to 24 hours. The back edge of the cold pool will continue to
generate steep lapse rates and allow for widely scattered
showers and storms for a few more hours, mainly for eastern
parts of the area (along/east of Indian 15/US 131. One more
disturbance will pass through the trough, with the only impacts
being a delay in increasing low level WAA and continuation of
somewhat below normal temps into Thursday.

A return to above normal temperatures commences Friday and persists
well into next week as upper level ridging increases to 580 dm or
greater with highs climbing into the 80s. A series of disturbances
will move from the SW US into the Ohio Valley with med range models
struggling somewhat on overall strength and moisture content with
each one. The first arrives Saturday with at least a chance for
chance for showers and thunderstorms. While surface dewpoints
will increase back into the 50s and maybe even low 60s, poor
lapse rates and limited shear should preclude any strong/severe
storm threat at this point, especially given the weakening
nature of the wave.

GFS/EC/GEM all have their own ideas on handling of several weaker
waves that pass across the area between Sunday and Tuesday, with the
GFS strongest Mon Ngt with one of these waves. Given dewpoints will
likely reside somewhere in the upper 50s to mid 60s, if any of these
waves can interact with the diurnally driven instability each
afternoon/eve, a few showers/storms cannot be ruled out with given
the lack of strong forcing or convergence across the area, no big
weather events are expected.

A more significant northern stream trough will moves towards
the western Great Lakes towards the end of the period. Ridging
off the east coast looks to maintain overall control, with most
of the effects staying NW of the area. That being said, a weak
front will swing into the region late Wednesday which could
provide somewhat better chances for showers and storms given at
least some convergence with the front. Chc pops reside in this
period to handle for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

As the low circulation continues to move southeast out of the
area and ridging begins to push further east over both TAF
sites with the diurnal heating waning this evening any
remaining convective showers/thunder will subside and winds will
begin to weaken. Clouds will also begin to clear out. With low
temperatures cooling to around 3-5 degree dew point depressions
some patchy low lying fog will be possible. Not super confident
in mentioning fog in the TAFs as a continued reduction in
moisture will also keep the dew point depressions around that
3-5 degree range. However, some patchy low lying fog would not
be a complete surprise away from the TAF sites which will be
kept just a tad warmer for those locations than other outlying
areas with urban heat island effects in play.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Andersen