706
FXUS63 KIWX 161631
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1231 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms with local downpours this
  afternoon into Saturday.

- Very warm Sunday into Tuesday with highs in the low to mid
  80s.

- Strong to possibly severe storms Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A weak upper level system will move northeast and bring
additional chances for showers and storms from this afternoon
into Saturday. The environment will be similar to the one early
this week with high precipitable water values, low CAPE/instability
and low shear. Locally heavy downpours are likely, but severe
storms are not expected. A diurnal flare in the activity is
likely Friday and Saturday as daytime heating helps with some
destabilization. An upper level ridge will build into the region
early next week. Temperatures will rise much above normal in the
low to mid 80s with upper 80s possible. Given the position of
the upper ridge and the ridge strength, have cut the model blend
shower/storm chances for Monday. Otherwise, a strong upper level
system will approach Tuesday in tandem with an EML (Elevated
Mixed Layer) and should set the stage for strong to severe
storms Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR/dry conditions and light southerly winds this afternoon will
give way to chances for scattered showers late this afternoon into
tonight as an upper level shortwave lifts in from the Mid MS
Valley. An isolated thunderstorm will also possible 22-03z at
mainly KSBN. VFR conditions will generally persist outside of
any convection into most of tonight. However, a sfc trough does
edge into nw IN late tonight into tomorrow morning with IFR to
low MVFR cigs possible along it, highest probs at KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel