Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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557 FXUS62 KJAX 241713 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 113 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast is mostly on track. New models show chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms about 10% lower for NE FL than what was previously anticipated. SE GA is still seeing chances from 15-30% for the afternoon and into the evening with NE FL having its highest chance (around 20%) between 8-10pm. Partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low to mid 90s with overnight temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A progressive warming trend today with low chances (15-25%) of afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms generally east of Highway 301 corridor where sea breezes merge under a passing mid level short wave trough. Synoptic scale models and MOS are not overly excited about rainfall potential this afternoon, however, high resolution CAMs and convective ingredients including above normal PWAT of 1.5-1.8 inches and diurnal instability profiles favor at least low end rain chance inclusion with forcing from both the passing short wave and sea breezes. Higher rain chances will focus across SE GA while drier mid level air across NE FL will limit convective coverage and depth. Prevailing westerly steering flow will bring a more dominant west coast sea breeze, with the hottest daytime temperatures and thermal low focused toward the I-95 corridor as high temperatures range in the low to mid 90s with heat index values near 100 degrees. Any resultant early evening convection will drift offshore of the local coast by 10 pm, trailed by dry conditions overnight. Patchy inland fog will be possible across the Suwannee River Valley where moisture advected inland with the west coast sea breeze and also where any rainfall recently occurred. Mild low temperatures will also trend above normal ranging from the mid 60s well inland to low/mid 70s along the St. Johns River basin and Atlantic coast. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Surface ridge axis extends across central FL as upper ridging extends across the GOMEX. Prevailing westerly steering flow will bring a more dominant west coast sea breeze, with the hottest daytime temperatures focused toward the I-95 corridor each afternoon as high temperatures range in the low to mid 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees. Upper shortwaves traverse the ridge and pass through the region from north to south on Saturday. This will trigger isolated to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening, mainly across SE GA with a outflow boundary shifting southward and enhancing convection along the sea breeze collisions along the I-95 corridor. Convection wanes in the evening with the loss of daytime heating as the potential outflow boundary crosses into NE FL. Drier conditions expected on Sunday with a few showers over SE GA. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Ridging sinks southward as a cold front moves through the Deep South on Monday. Mostly dry and hot conditions expected on Monday where highs will be pushing the mid/upper 90s under breezier SW flow, with little relief from the east coast sea breeze. Scattered showers and storms spread across the area from the northwest on Tuesday as the front moves southward into NE FL. The front then stalls over central FL Wednesday into Thursday focusing convection to areas south of I-10. Drier and `cooler` air filters into SE GA in the wake of the front as a surface ridge builds WNW of the region. The drier air mass will bring a return of cool morning lows in the 60s for the latter half of next week. Highs will then range from the upper 80s in SE GA to the low 90s in NE FL. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected for most TAF sites, with the exception of some Saturday early morning fog for VQQ, which should dissipate by 12Z. Best chance for vicinity thunderstorms will occur for SSI this evening from 22-02Z. Chances around 10 percent for VCTS for JAX, VQQ, and CRG exist but not enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 High pressure will extend across central Florida today, then shift across south Florida Saturday as a front drifts southward across Georgia. Prevailing SSW winds will become onshore today and Saturday in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. High pressure builds northward across Florida on Sunday, then another front moves southward across the waters late Monday through Tuesday with an increase in thunderstorm potential. Rip Currents: Moderate risk today. For Saturday, Moderate Risk for NE FL beaches and Low risk for SE GA beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Moderate river flooding is forecast next due to `backwater` is forecast to begin sometime Friday for the Santa Fe at Three Rivers Estates (lower Santa Fe basin). The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage and portions of the Suwannee are expected to rise into Minor Flood stage by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 92 71 95 / 10 40 10 10 SSI 74 90 73 90 / 20 30 20 10 JAX 71 94 72 95 / 20 20 20 10 SGJ 72 93 72 93 / 20 20 20 10 GNV 68 92 69 94 / 10 10 10 10 OCF 70 93 70 95 / 10 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$