876
FXUS62 KKEY 311850
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
250 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
KBYX radar has remained quiet for much of the day, though, a lone
thunderstorm developed across the offshore Gulf waters this
afternoon mainly east of P Tower and quickly dissipated. GOES 16
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly fair weather cumulus
throughout the Florida Keys with the exception of the
aforementioned thunderstorm which had grown into a cumulonimbus
cloud. It remains another very warm one out there this afternoon
with temperatures along the Island Chain near 90 degrees with some
locations like the Big Pine Key RAWS and Boca Chica Key reaching
94 degrees. Surface high pressure centered over Appalachia is
building its way southward into Florida and the Florida Keys
resulting in breezes increasing out of the northeast to east. As a
result, marine platforms are observing northeast to east breezes
of near 15 knots with Island Chain communities observing near 15
mph.

.FORECAST...
The main story for the next week will be the strong surface high
currently over Appalachia moving southeastward and emerging off
the Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend. This high will continue
moving further out into the western North Atlantic through early
to mid next week. For tonight through Saturday night, the
pressure gradient between the high to the north and lower pressure
in the Caribbean will create for breezy conditions for much of
the Keys. Northeast to east breezes of 15 to 20 mph are expected
through this time frame. The gradient begins to loosen up for
Sunday through the early to mid week timeframe resulting in
slackening breezes.

Regarding moisture, expecting a surge in the low level moisture
beginning Saturday which is expected to continue through a good
portion of next week. Mid to upper level moisture increases for
Sunday through Monday resulting in a better chance for any
showers and storms to get vertical growth to them resulting in the
best chance for thunder.

Mid to late week, another high slides southward off the New
England coast and replaces the previous high. The one difference
will be that moisture will lessen some resulting in rain chances
nudging down a bit. Due to this, 30% was maintained for Wednesday
night through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal
waters tonight for northeast to east winds of 20 to 25 knots and
seas up to 7 feet in the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high
pressure over the Ohio Valley will dive southeastward, emerging
off the Mid- Atlantic coast over the weekend. This will result in
freshened northeast to east tonight, lasting through much of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at EYW and MTH through the
TAF period. Near surface winds from the east will increase
further the remainder of the afternoon evening to near 15 knots
with gusts 20 to 24 knots, then decreasing gradually after
midnight. The east winds will pick up again shortly after sunrise
Saturday near 15 knots with occasional gusts over 20 knots. With
sporadic cumulus streets in the lee of the larger islands, the
sparse coverage of any showers precludes mention of VCSH in the
TAFs through tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in day in 1871, the daily record rainfall of 2.81"
was recorded in Key West.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  80  88  79 /  20  20  20  30
Marathon  90  80  87  79 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....JR
Data Acquisition.....DP

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