Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
194 FXUS62 KKEY 040805 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 405 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Currently - Surface through lower level Atlantic ridging stretches westward into the southeastern United States. As a result, surface winds in the Keys are gentle to moderate out of the east to southeast. Convective activity has toned down quite a bit after a rather active afternoon. There is also a dramatic lessening of maritime and lee side streamers coming out of the Bahamas. A contributing factor for this may be that the mid and upper levels have transitioned to a more zonal character with prior troughing having moved on to the east. Forecast - The previously mentioned ridge will remain across the southeastern United States today into tomorrow. This will keep breezes gentle out of the east to southeast across the Keys. This steady flow should be able to hold highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Zonal flow will remain aloft. The near term synoptic makeup along with current radar and satellite trends suggest rain potential will be a good step lower than it has been over the past couple of days. In addition, and in support of this, is forecast sounding suggesting weak lower level inhibition with some drying occurring today. Finally, lower steering flow will increasingly have a southerly component, opening the door to increased Cuban inhibition. As a result, will nudge down day time pops for the next few days. There continues to be increasing uncertainty beyond mid week. Guidance has been consistent with suggesting a mid latitude low swinging through the eastern United States will push the Atlantic ridge southward across the Florida Peninsula. This along with the ridge weakening will result in surface winds slackening, shifting further south, but becoming variable at times. One reason for this is a cut off low latitude southern stream trough will migrate eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, cross Florida on Thursday and continue out into the Atlantic. A secondary attached shortwave trough may follow late Thursday and early Friday. This trough is expected to reach below 500 mb. This is usually sufficient to suggest higher PoPs. However, guidance remains unenthused. This is likely due to the fact that the lower level ridge, while weak and often bifurcated, will remain nearby and as a result, lower level moisture will not be ideal and convective forcing should be weak. For now will maintain low chance PoPs which is slightly above deterministic guidance. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 An Atlantic surface ridge stretching into the southeastern United States will slip southwards into Florida beginning late tomorrow. As a result, gentle easterly breezes will begin trending downwards and, at times, become variable. The ridge will remain nearby, but fractured, late in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through Tuesday evening. Rain chances appear to be lower today compared to the past couple of days, as a drier airmass moves into the area from the east, therefore VCSH is not mentioned in the TAFs at this time. Surface winds will remain from the E to ESE at 7 to 10 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Data Acquisition.....Jacobson Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest