628
FXUS63 KLBF 280807
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions today with seasonable temperatures generally in
  the 70s.

- An active weather pattern begins Wednesday into the weekend
  with increasing potential for thunderstorms and locally heavy
  rainfall. Some storms may become severe across the Panhandle
  Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a ridge of
high pressure centered over Mexico, extending north into northern
Canada. Upper-level low pressure was centered off the coast of
British Columbia with a trough extending south along the coast of
the Pacific Northwest. Another upper-level trough was noted, though
rather messy, with several northern and southern-stream
shortwaves traversing eastward across the Great Lakes region.
All of these features combined has resulted in northwesterly
flow aloft across western and north central Nebraska. At the
surface, high pressure was centered over the region with a weak
cold front moving southwest across South Dakota. At 3 AM CT,
temperatures ranged from 40 degrees at Gordon to 53 degrees at
O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Quiet and dry conditions are in store for western and north central
Nebraska today. Surface high pressure will build into the area with
the upper-level ridge nudging further eastward across the Plains,
supporting warm air advection (WAA). Seasonable temperatures will be
felt across the area as a result, with temperatures ranging from the
mid 70s across northern Nebraska to near 80 degrees across southwest
Nebraska. The upper-level trough will continue shifting further east
with surface pressure falls aiding in the development of a low level
jet (LLJ) tonight. With surface high pressure building over the
Great Lakes and a lee side trough developing across northeast
Wyoming on Wednesday, the surface pressure gradient (SPG) will
tighten across western and north central Nebraska. Given this and
the LLJ, south-southeasterly winds will increase Wednesday morning,
with peak afternoon gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour. With the upper-
level ridge axis bisecting the local area into Wednesday,
temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as compared to today.
Daytime temperatures on Wednesday are expected to climb into the
upper 70s to low 80s area wide. Southerly low-level flow will
establish efficient moisture transport into the Plains with a
ribbon of precipitable water values into the 90th percentile as
highlighted by both the NAEFS and ENS ensembles. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates (8 C/km) will aid in a narrow corridor of
increased instability (MLCAPE ~1,000 to 2,000 J/kg) along the
lee surface trough. Despite surface dew points only reaching
into the mid to upper 50s and low-level shear remaining rather
weak, this environment will be conducive for strong to severe
surface gusts and large hail for areas primarily along and west
of Highway 83. Convection appears to initiate over eastern
Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle late Wednesday
afternoon, eventually congealing into a line as it tracks
eastward across the state of Nebraska. Convection is expected to
weaken overnight as it continues into in a more stabilizing
environment across central and north central Nebraska. In
regards to the excessive rainfall potential, with PWATs
approaching or exceeding 1" across the area combining with steep
mid- level lapse rates and strong WAA, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible across the southern Panhandle into southwest
Nebraska. Will continue to monitor the severe potential as CAMs
get into range and get a better handle on the track of the
system and the environment.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances persist through the day on Thursday
as the system continues to progress eastward. The severe threat will
shift further south of the area where the main axis of instability
and forcing will reside. However, cannot rule out the potential
for strong to briefly severe storms across far southwest
Nebraska given the ribbon of instability bisecting that area. An
associated cold front will sweep across the area Thursday
bringing cooler temperatures to the area. Highs will primarily
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Thursday, though quickly
warming back into the 80s this weekend.

With the upper-level trough continuing to move through the High
Plains and moisture lingering over the region, the potential for
diurnally biased showers and thunderstorm will continue through the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Expect mostly clear skies across the area over the next 24
hours. A few high clouds at 25000 FT AGL will be possible at the
KLBF terminal. Winds will be variable at under 10 KTS over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Buttler