Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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768 FXUS64 KLCH 292115 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 415 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Showers and storms are on radar currently in response to a storm system and a boundary that is bisecting the area. Storms this afternoon will begin to taper out near sunset with a quiet evening and overnight period. Little to no change in the overall pattern. The upper ridge is still centered over MX / the Pacific where it will remain over the course of the period. We will see impulses quickly slide across the region, leading to the possibility of seeing daily showers and storms. MaxTs will be in the upper 80s to right at 90 and MinTs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Dewpoints will be stuck in the 70s, yielding MaxApts around the 90s range. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 An upper trof extending from the central plains into the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to slowly work across the region keeping PoPs elevated Saturday into Sunday. The persistent low level tropical airmass, normal for this time of year, will support a low end risk of flash flooding due to high rainfall rates and diurnal heating could allow for a few stronger storms both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. While there continues to be a fairly wide variation in model solutions, the general trend is for persistent ridging over northern Mexico to build up the Texas gulf coast and the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday night into Monday which will suppress all, but the most tenacious diurnally driven afternoon convection. NBM is resolving isolated afternoon PoPs Monday through Wednesday and see no justification to oppose this solution. The decreasing precip and cloud cover will allow afternoon highs to creep back into the upper 80s to lower 90s through the first half of the week and heat indices pushing 100. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Showers and storms are starting to move through the central louisiana with more activity expected to ramp up over the afternoon hours. There will be a lull period late this evening through tomorrow morning, with only sparse activity expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the remainder of the period with wave heights in the 2 to 4 foot range. There will be an isolated to scattered chance of daily showers and storms over the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 86 69 85 / 20 50 30 60 LCH 72 86 73 86 / 20 60 20 50 LFT 72 89 74 89 / 10 40 20 40 BPT 74 87 75 88 / 20 60 10 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...87