Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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951 FXUS64 KLCH 290511 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1211 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 524 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The severe weather threat has come to an end across the area with only light to moderate showers over central and south central LA. Activity will continue to taper tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are currently widespread across a majority of the area, some of which are severe. We should see a decrease in activity over the late evening hours. There is still an Enhanced to Marginal risk over the area with the highest threat existing over most of our SETX Counties. Activity will taper across the area from west to east late this afternoon and into the evening. Tomorrow is expected to be quiet, with additional rounds of activity expected tomorrow and Thursday as a boundary lingers in and around the area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Not too much day to day change in the long term forecast with daily isolated to scattered showers during the afternoon to early evening periods. MaxTs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with MinTs in the 60s to 70s. Dewpoints will be stuck in the 70s, yielding MaxApts around the 90s range. By Friday morning, the warm front will still be lifting north through the CWA with ongoing activity extending through the day. The upper level ridge will remain centered over Mexico with a series of disturbances moving across the CONUS over the long term period. The surface high pressure will be off to the east of us, allowing for nothing but moisture rich southerly flow to move into then just exist for the area. As mentioned in the morning AFD, this set up will lead to an interesting dynamic where the relative unstable pattern will be competing against the stabilizing effect of the ridge. The chance for showers / storms and what we will see as far as max temps will depend upon that. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions to persist through the overnight hours across all sites. High cirrus / stratus from decaying TSRA across central and southern TX will filter across SETX and SWLA creating BKN skies through the early morning hours. Evening sounding profile has low levels dry, however, ceilings may briefly drop to MVFR during the dawn hours as low level winds mix moisture into the lower troposphere. By mid morning any MVFR ceilings will mix out leaving BKN skies generally above 10kft through the afternoon. 30 && .MARINE... Surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico will result in a persistent, light onshore flow continuing well into the weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today through the end of the week. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch is no longer in effect. There are still a few subsevere storms over the waters that will taper over the rest of the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 84 69 85 / 30 60 20 50 LCH 74 85 73 86 / 40 70 10 50 LFT 75 87 74 89 / 30 60 20 40 BPT 75 87 74 87 / 30 70 10 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...30