Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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636 FXUS64 KLCH 280755 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Wx map shows a weak pressure gradient across the area, with light south winds along and south of the I-10 corridor, calm further north. Aloft, a large mid to upper level ridge continues over Mexico, South Texas, and the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, with a broad trough over the Central U.S. Temperatures this morning remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 70s to near 80 across the area. The persistent smoke from Central America that has spread northward across the Western Gulf of Mexico and our region is keeping lower visibilities in the 2 to 5 mile range this morning, and likely will continue through daybreak, with some slow improvement during the day. For today, expect hot and humid conditions to continue. Afternoon high temperatures expected to reach the lower to mid 90s, with maximum heat index values or apparent temperatures ranging from 100 to 107 degrees. This is just below our heat advisory criteria, thus will not be re-issuing at this time. The other issue will be the increased chances of showers and thunderstorms, around 20-30% over Louisiana, 30-40% over Southeast Texas as a shortwave upper level disturbance within the northwest flow aloft affects the region. Some of these thunderstorms could possibly reach severe limits, with damaging winds the primary weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has the area from Alexandria to Lake Charles westward in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, and points eastward in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Most of the activity expected during the afternoon/early evening hours. For tonight through Thursday night, expect the mid to upper level trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. to gradually deepen, eroding the mid to upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Expect the surface high pressure ridge over the Northern Gulf of Mexico to keep moist south to southeast winds over the region. The increased low level moisture, coupled with the periodic disturbances within the northwest flow aloft, expected to bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Expect slightly lower morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and daytime highs in the 80s due to the increased afternoon cloud cover. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) The long term forecast remains fairly consistent with ridging building in the west and a surface high over the Great Lakes Region. We will see a few disturbances track across the region during the second half of the week, while at the same time a surface boundary will meander across the region. This set up will lead to an interesting dynamic where the relative unstable pattern will be competing against the stabilizing effect of the ridge. Each afternoon will have the chance for showers and thunderstorms as daytime heating will be needed to overcome capping and subsidence aloft. During each afternoon PoPs will be in the 30 to 50% range. However, if the ridge is stronger than forecasted or if high clouds limit day time heating rain chances will drop. The high pressure to our east will keep a consistent south flow into the CWA. Dew points will remain stubbornly high in the mid 70s. Temperatures will be a few degrees higher than typical for this time of year with highs in the mid to upper 80s and low in the high 60s to mid 70s. The heat index will peak around 95 each day. 14/Slaughter && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) MVFR/IFR visibilities & ceilings expected this morning for southern terminals, partially due to the ongoing smoke plume across the Gulf of Mexico spreading northward across the area. This will transition into haze later on this morning and afternoon, gradually improving, but likely to pose lowering MVFR/IFR visibilities & ceilings after 06z once again. Expect VCTS at all sites by 18z, with the best chances of TSRA from 20-24z as indicated from the tempo groups fro TSRA. Winds expected to remain light from the south or variable 5 kts or less through the period.Will have 08/DML && .MARINE... Surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico will result in a persistent, light onshore flow continuing well into the weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today through the end of the week. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 69 85 68 / 20 20 40 20 LCH 91 72 86 72 / 30 20 50 30 LFT 94 72 88 72 / 20 20 30 20 BPT 91 75 87 74 / 30 20 50 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...08