Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
456 FXUS64 KLCH 271725 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1225 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Wx map shows a weak frontal boundary across the ArkLaTex, with surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico keeping southerly winds across the region. Aloft, a large mid to upper level ridge continues over Mexico, Texas and the Western Gulf of Mexico, with a broad trough over the Central U.S. Temperatures this morning remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 70s to near 80 across the area. Radar showing a thin line of showers across Central Louisiana, with the stronger thunderstorms further northeast across Mississippi. For today, expect hot and humid conditions to continue. Afternoon high temperatures expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, with maximum heat index values or apparent temperatures ranging from 108 to 111 degrees. A Heat Advisory continues for the entire area from Noon through 8 PM CDT. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms, around 15-20%, expected this afternoon into the early evening hours as the frontal boundary approaches. Some of these thunderstorms could possibly reach severe limits, with damaging winds the primary weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the area outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Most of the activity expected to dissipate before Midnight, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. For Tuesday through Wednesday night, expect the mid to upper level trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. to gradually deepen, eroding the mid to upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Expect the surface high pressure ridge over the Northern Gulf of Mexico to keep moist south to southeast winds over the region. Increased low level moisture, coupled with periodic disturbances within the northwest flow aloft, expected to bring scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. For Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center has Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threat. Slightly lower dewpoints and afternoon temperatures expected, thus not expecting the Heat Advisory to be issued for Tuesday or Wednesday. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) The main forecast question for the long-term forecast will be the relative strength of an upper-level ridge. A few disturbances will track across the region during the second half of the week, while at the same time, a surface boundary will stall along the coast. This set-up will lead to an interesting dynamic where the relative unstable pattern will compete against the stabilizing effect of the ridge. Each afternoon will have the chance for diurnally driven showers, as daytime heating will be needed to overcome capping and subsidence. During each afternoon, PoPs will be in the 30 to 50% range. However, if the ridge is stronger than forecasted or if high clouds limit daytime heating, rain chances will drop. Temperatures will be typical for this time of year, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the high 60s to mid 70s. 14/Slaughter && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Hazy conditions will persist across the entire region throughout the period, causing extended periods of MVFR VIS at all sites. In addition, some patchy fog will be possible through the early morning hours prior to sunrise, mainly for the I-10 terminals. Expect a few very isolated thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon and taper off with sunset. Not all sites will see storms but the location of convection is too difficult to predict, therefore included VCTS at all sites this afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR ceilings this afternoon, becoming more MVFR and spots of IFR tonight through tomorrow morning. 17 && .MARINE... A weak frontal boundary approaching the region today expected to stall north of the coastal waters tonight and Tuesday, with the surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico keeping mainly onshore flow this week. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday, with daily chances remaining in the forecast through the end of the week. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 93 69 85 / 20 30 20 40 LCH 76 91 74 87 / 20 20 10 40 LFT 76 93 72 88 / 20 20 10 30 BPT 77 91 77 89 / 20 20 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...17