Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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205 FXUS64 KLCH 310541 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1241 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Little to no change in the overall pattern. The upper ridge is still centered over MX / the Pacific where it will remain over the course of the period. The surface high pressure is off to the northeast of us with winds out of the south and SE supplying plentiful moisture. We will see impulses quickly slide across the region, leading to daily showers and storms. Currently we are seeing isolated showers and storms on radar mostly along a boundary that is bisecting the CWA. Confidence in model guidance is low, however the general consensus is that the first round of storms will move into the CWA this evening before tapering out going into the overnight hours. The lull in activity will be possible from there until the mid Friday morning timeframe. By the afternoon hours, yet another round is expected as a weak surface low moves into the ArkLaTx then exits off to the northeast. The models are split on the placement of an upper level low moving across the Southern Plains on Saturday, however it will provide more rain for the region. Each day of the short term we remain in at least marginal risk for severe storms, with a slight risk area for tomorrow. Damaging winds are the primary threat. Additionally we are in a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 An upper level trof swinging quickly across north Texas and southern Oklahoma will support continued daily scattered thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday evening. The highest PoPs are situated across south central Louisiana in the vicinity of the deepest moisture. Given the daily rainfall expected across the region through the weekend and the prospects for high rainfall rates, a low end flash flood risk will likely exist during this time frame. Convection should be quick to dissipate Sunday night as the upper level support shifts quickly East. Guidance is in fairly good agreement on a persistent upper level ridge over northern Mexico building up the Texas gulf coast and Western Gulf of Mexico putting a lid on the vast majority of convection Monday through Wednesday. That said, with a surface high over the eastern gulf streaming a steady dose of low level tropical air into the region and afternoon highs again climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s, a couple of isolated thunderstorms can`t be completely ruled out so opted to maintain 20 PoPs each afternoon. Outside of that, skies are expected to remain mostly clear with heat indices topping out around 100. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR/MVFR CIGs along/south of I-10 with MVFR and possible IFR north of I-10 overnight. SHRA/+TSRA now mostly exited the region with only a few residual SHRA/VCSH remaining. Expect another round of storms tomorrow afternoon with reduction in CIGs/VSBYs in heavier storms. Severe weather will once again be a threat. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the remainder of the period with wave heights in the 2 to 4 foot range. There will be an isolated to scattered chance of daily showers and storms over the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 70 85 70 / 70 30 60 20 LCH 86 74 85 75 / 50 20 60 20 LFT 88 75 88 75 / 60 20 50 20 BPT 88 75 87 75 / 40 20 50 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...87