342
FXUS64 KLIX 050840
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
340 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

We will continue with this trend thing. This time there will be a
frontal axis involved. This cold front has a sfc low in central
Manitoba this morning with a front from there through Wisconsin to
Missouri to around the Texarkana region and then bends back into
west TX. It is this pocket in the front where the latest MCS is
located. The front will move faster with the MCS but the two will
feed off each other. The front will provide forcing over a larger
area and will allow the MCS to cold pool and develop more cells to
its east and NE. This is already occurring along the frontal
boundary this morning and there is no reason why it wouldn`t
continue today until this front slows to a crawl. This slowing is
expected to occur as the short wave, that is helping this whole
event take place, ejects NE later this morning. The front should
slow as it gets well into northern LA. The MCS may even outrun the
frontal boudary by several miles at this time and since it is the
obvious path for any MCS to travel, this is exactly what the global
models are doing, sending the MCS eastward along its axis later
today. This is a bit different from the latest CAMS as they would
like to send the bulk of this due south and fade the eastward
extent. Earlier CAMS did the same as the global suites are doing
now. But what may actually end up occurring is the main thrust this
morning is south until after daylight and another area starts to
move along the slowing front as it moves SE. The MCS would move
within two vectors, one being SE and the other along the front to
the E which would cause it to move ESE and then as it moves farther
east along the frontal axis which is oriented more E then ENE, this
would also turn this feature in those directions if it can hold
together into the late evening hours. This is the outcome we will be
using as it follows the trend, the synoptic pattern and past CAMS
models that agreed with the larger scale patterns. All variables
supportive of severe storms will fall along the same numbers as they
have been for the last 2 weeks. The only real thing lacking is shear
values being very low. But CAPE numbers make up for this
considerably. This latest MCS could get into the area by 10am today
maybe a bit later and since the front will be right on its heels,
storms may be ongoing overnight. We show this over the northern
counties/parishes and slowly sink it south with the front toward
daylight Thu. This front should either stall or become quasi-
stationary for Thu providing an obvious focus for storms to develop
Thu as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Models continue to try to bring some type of dry air with a high
that builds in rather quick over the weekend. There are two frontal
boundaries that will move into the area. This first one gets near
the coast by Fri before stalling and the second gets into the area
Sat as it pivots with the high moving southward to the east of the
area. Models are trying to show dry days for Fri, Sat and Sun but PW
values are still in the 1.6 to 1.9" range which is where they have
been for a while. These fronts don`t exit the area either but will
bisect the area. With no other strong changes, we will show some of
this drying where PW values are lower, but keep precip numbers high
where PW values increase across the frontal boundary over the
weekend. So some of the are should dry out while there will still be
storms developing for others. Monday will show another front moving
into the area that morning bringing another round of sh/ts with it
and this one also stalls near or at the coast. The orientation of it
would help more MCS activity flow along it from where they are
coming now for Tue and Wed of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR will be found at most terminals today outside of TSRA which
should impact several terminals(mainly well inland sites) today
starting by mid morning. IFR cigs could be found through mid morning
for MCB and MVFR for BTR but the rest of the area should be in VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Southerly winds of 10-15kt will remain over all waters through much
of this week. Winds could become more westerly by the end of the
week but wind speeds should remain light outside any storms that
develop. A cold front is expected to stall along the coast late Fri
and could temporarily shift winds to a northerly direction, but
these winds are expected to be light outside storms. Monday could
see the same northerly winds occur over a portion of the coastal
waters as another front stalls at or near the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  70  87  69 /  70  50  50   0
BTR  93  75  92  74 /  50  40  50   0
ASD  92  75  91  74 /  30  30  70  10
MSY  91  77  90  76 /  20  30  70  10
GPT  89  75  90  74 /  30  40  70  10
PQL  91  75  91  72 /  30  30  60  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE