Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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086 FXUS64 KLIX 060455 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A shortwave trough is currently moving through the lower Mississippi River Valley and will continue to track across the southeastern CONUS. An outflow dominated complex of showers and thunderstorms is moving east through the Florida Parishes and southwest Mississippi and should be exiting the CWA over the next hour or 2. The line has struggled to keep up with the outflow boundary which supports lack of severe development. However, remnant outflow boundary/ies could be features to watch before sunset as they meander towards the southern half of the local area where its relatively sunny. Gusty winds will be the main threats with this activity. A weak frontal boundary associated with the shortwave will move towards the Gulf Coast on Thursday. This, combined with typical summer daytime heating, will be the focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms. Although not outlooked for severe weather as storm will be elevated, gusty winds will be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Warmer and generally drier conditions expected as we end this week and head into the weekend. As the shortwave ejects east, upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will expand east across much of the Gulf Coast. Subsidence from this high pressure system will keep storms from developing until the next upper level trough suppresses ridging aloft possibly on Sunday. Could start to see afternoon convection then...with steadily increasing POPs thereafter. In the meantime, Friday and Saturday probably looking at highs several degrees above normal with heat indicies 100-105 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Some mixture of VFR and MFR conditions will continue overnight with some patchy low cloud decks in the area. Then it`s another round of potential showers and storms tomorrow starting late tomorrow morning but the best chances are in the afternoon. -BL && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Elevated onshore winds will persist ahead of an approaching weak cold front. This boundary will sag into the region this evening and overnight which will breakdown the wind field Friday into early next week. Looking a winds 10kts or less and seas 1-2ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 89 69 92 / 20 20 0 0 BTR 75 92 73 96 / 40 20 0 0 ASD 75 91 73 96 / 50 70 10 10 MSY 78 91 76 94 / 50 70 10 10 GPT 76 90 74 95 / 50 80 10 10 PQL 75 90 71 95 / 60 80 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MEFFER LONG TERM....MEFFER AVIATION...BL MARINE...MEFFER