190
FXUS64 KLIX 052058 RRA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
347 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A shortwave trough is currently moving through the lower Mississippi
River Valley and will continue to track across the southeastern
CONUS. An outflow dominated complex of showers and thunderstorms is
moving east through the Florida Parishes and southwest Mississippi
and should be exiting the CWA over the next hour or 2. The line has
struggled to keep up with the outflow boundary which supports lack
of severe development. However, remnant outflow boundary/ies could be
features to watch before sunset as they meander towards the southern
half of the local area where its relatively sunny. Gusty winds will
be the main threats with this activity.

A weak frontal boundary associated with the shortwave will move
towards the Gulf Coast on Thursday. This, combined with typical
summer daytime heating, will be the focus for scattered to numerous
showers and storms. Although not outlooked for severe weather as
storm will be elevated, gusty winds will be possible.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Warmer and generally drier conditions expected as we end this week
and head into the weekend. As the shortwave ejects east, upper level
ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will expand east across
much of the Gulf Coast. Subsidence from this high pressure system
will keep storms from developing until the next upper level trough
suppresses ridging aloft possibly on Sunday. Could start to see
afternoon convection then...with steadily increasing POPs
thereafter. In the meantime, Friday and Saturday probably looking at
highs several degrees above normal with heat indicies 100-105
degrees.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms are moving east across
the region. Lightning and gusty winds to 35 knots are the main
impacts expected over the next few hours. VFR/MVFR conditions will
then dominate the remainder of the forecast period with lower clouds
remaining in place. Scattered showers will be possible overnight
into Thursday morning.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Elevated onshore winds will persist ahead of an approaching weak
cold front. This boundary will sag into the region this evening and
overnight which will breakdown the wind field Friday into early
next week. Looking a winds 10kts or less and seas 1-2ft.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  89  69  92 /  60  50   0  10
BTR  75  92  73  96 /  40  50   0  10
ASD  75  91  73  96 /  40  70  10  10
MSY  78  91  76  94 /  40  70  10  20
GPT  76  90  74  95 /  50  70  10  10
PQL  75  90  71  95 /  50  60  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFER
LONG TERM....MEFFER
AVIATION...MEFFER
MARINE...MEFFER