555
FXUS64 KLIX 211811
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
111 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Little change in the ongoing pattern of deep layer ridging
currently in place across the Gulf South is expected through
Thursday night. The result of this deep layer ridging will be
continued subsidence and warming through the mid and upper levels
of the atmosphere, and that warming will keep a strong mid- level
capping inversion place through the period. This will result in a
dry forecast through the period. At most, some scattered low
topped cumulus development beneath the inversion will occur each
afternoon as the low levels remain warm, humid, and unstable.
Temperatures will remain warmer than average due to the highly
subsident airmass in place, and afternoon highs will easily climb
into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will also be
above normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remain
elevated in the mid to upper 60s. Have opted to go with a blend of
NBM 50th and 75th percentile values for the overnight lows. As
low dip toward the diurnal minimum each morning, some patchy fog
may develop over inland areas given the light boundary layer winds
in place beneath the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Going into Friday continuing to be noticeably hotter as 591dm
ridging remains parked over Mexico into the Gulf. This will keep
highs pretty hot generally into the mid 90`s and with the return of
low to mid 70 Td`s, will introduce building heat indicies into the
upper 90`s to low 100`s especially going into Memorial Day Weekend.
Not seeing any excessive or dangerous heat indicies, but will be
enough to be impactful for those outdoors for an extended period,
especially given this being our first return of heat reaching these
temperatures this season and many may not be too used to it just
yet. Messaging going into the holiday weekend will be focused on
taking precautions against the heat. Additionally, kept a warmer
overnight low bias rolling with many areas not cooling much lower
than the mid to upper 70`s.

As for rain chances, still not seeing strong indications but as
mentioned in yesterday`s long-range discussion, will still need to
keep an eye on the quasi-zonal flow aloft and subtle hints at weak
mid-level impulses ridging from TX to the northern Gulf coast. No
indications of any MCS or cluster in recent runs, but will need to
keep an eye on it in case anything tries to sneak into atleast
nearby our area. For now, rolling with NBM deterministic PoPs which
keeps things dry for the most part this weekend. Some indications of
a weak front arriving early next week, but that remains to be seen
as far as rain coverage/chances and potential to counteract the heat
some. Will keep an eye on that. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
A scattered CU field that developed this morning encompasses most
of the local area. Observations at terminals indicate VFR
conditions are in place now that CU decks have risen. Expect VFR
to dominate the rest of the day and evening hours. MVFR will be
possible at some TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning as
low clouds potentially develop. Southerly flow will continue with
light/variable winds in the overnight period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The waters will continue to see a persistent southeasterly flow of
around 10 knots through the weekend as high pressure dominates the
northern Gulf. Seas will also be fairly consistent in the 1 to 3
feet range through the period, and there will be no risk of
thunderstorm activity producing locally higher waves and seas. As
a result, continued good boating conditions are anticipated
through the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  88  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  71  90  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  71  88  73  89 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  73  87  75  88 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  73  85  74  86 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  71  85  72  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...PG