826
FXUS64 KLIX 312045
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
345 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Tonight through Saturday... Generally, a couple more upper level
impulses will move through over the next couple of days. There is
still a ton of model uncertainty in the timing of these storms. And
in general, the models, especially the CAMs, are going to continue
to struggle to pinpoint timing until storms are ongoing and start
firing up (real-time to near-time weather basically). So, the timing
is a factor that will remain quite uncertain over the next few days.
But overall, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be
expected, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours
with peak daytime heating. These storms will have the risk of hail
and damaging winds (30-60mph), based on the lapse rates and
instability available. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern (PWs
are quite high, climatologically) and could cause minor flooding or
ponding on local roads and make visibility while driving difficult.
The localized flooding risk would be higher for urban or vulnerable
locations, as is common for this time of year. Overall, stay weather
aware over the next few days as we continue in this unsettled
pattern for the atmosphere. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Sunday through mid-week... Sunday and Monday, several more upper
level impulses will be moving through the area. These will look
pretty similar to the last few days, and there are still a lot of
uncertainties in the models regarding timing of the best convection.
Generally though, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be
expected, especially during the afternoon/evening hours on Sunday
and Monday. On Monday, the bulk of the rainfall will be more for our
northern areas, but this could change as we get closer. These storms
will, based on model soundings, likely have the risk of locally
heavy rainfall, small hail, and winds (30-60mph). Stay weather aware
on Sunday and Monday of next week.

Tuesday through mid-week, conditions should be a bit drier as a weak
ridge starts to build in over the area. Generally, rain chances will
be lower. An isolated shower will be possible, but likely will not
be severe at this time, looking at the models. Temperatures will be
a little warmer though, as a result. Highs are forecast to be in the
low 90s with lows in the mid 70s. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Vicinity showers are
firing up near some area airports, especially west of I-55.
Conditions will remain VFR with vicinity showers and storms for
most area airports through the forecast period. A couple of
airports (mainly BTR and MCB) west of I-55 will see temporary
periods of MVFR conditions due to low ceilings and visibilities
this afternoon/evening. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Benign marine conditions overall. Generally, southerly to
southeasterly winds will prevail with moderate to calm winds
(10-15kts) throughout the forecast period. Showers and storms will
be possible every day, especially in the afternoon and evening
hours, through Tuesday which could produce locally higher gusts.
MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  83  67  86 /  60  80  20  60
BTR  73  89  73  90 /  30  80  20  60
ASD  73  88  71  89 /  60  90  30  60
MSY  76  88  75  88 /  40  90  30  60
GPT  75  85  73  86 /  70  90  50  60
PQL  73  86  71  87 /  70  90  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW