Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
595 FXUS65 KLKN 272017 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 117 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A few showers across central Nevada will diminish this evening. More opportunities for showers and thunderstorms will exist across northern and northeastern Nevada Tuesday as an upper- level trough moves through the region. Showers move out of northeastern Wednesday with cooler temperatures in the wake of a cold front. Dry conditions with temperatures rising into the 80s by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Showers across the higher terrain of central Nevada will dissipate through the evening hours. Rainfall will be limited to a couple hundredths at best given the lack deeper mid-level moisture and a dry sub-cloud mixed layer. Outside of downdraft wind gusts from showers, winds will remain light through tonight. Lows tonight will bottom out in the mid to upper 40s An upper-level trough will bring some mid-level moisture along with increasing southwest flow across the area. Best chances of any rain remain across far northern and northeastern Nevada, mainly north of I-80 in Elko County. Primary threats will be gusty outflow winds with little rainfall, cloud to ground lightning and small hail. Highs Tuesday will rise into the 70s and 80s with lows a bit cooler than tonight in the lower to upper 40s. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday Wednesday, a trough located north of Washington, with its axis extending into Nevada, will provide some isolated showers across northern Nevada (mainly northern Elko county), in the morning, before isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. Areas for these storms are expected east of Elko and Ely, and extending from Great Basin National Park to the Idaho/Nevada boarder near and including Jackpot. Breezy northwest winds are expected to develop in the afternoon before tapering off in the evening. Highs will be noticeably cooler, especially across Northern Nevada, from Tuesday, where a 5-10 degree cool down is expected. Highs will be in the 70s for most. Semi-zonal flow from Thursday though Saturday afternoon will allow for warming temperatures to close out May and kick off June. With high in the 70s and 80s, with 80s becoming more established towards the weekend. Ensembles are hinting at the next weather system or trough passage to be somewhere between Saturday afternoon and Monday. Currently, dry condtions are forecasted through the weekend with a shower or two across far northern Nevada Monday. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Some cumulus build-ups are currently occurring across central Nevada. Model soundings around Ely support the possibility of gusty and erratic wind gusts from collapsing cloud buildups through 04Z Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY...Temperatures are forecast to continue warming the next couple of days. Flows on many small creeks and streams are expected to rise, possibly into action stage for some, such as Lamoille Creek. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle Mountain currently in action stage and Comus forecast to enter action stage later this afternoon. Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Humboldt River at Battle Mountain remains in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 93/91/91