939
FXUS64 KLUB 021755
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Shortwave upper level ridging has largely shifted east of our region
early this morning with flow aloft progged to strengthen modestly
throughout the day. Continued southeasterly surface flow overnight
has reinforced a rich plume of low level moisture with surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s at 3 AM. This initial
southeasterly flow will gradually veer more southerly by mid morning
and south-southwesterly near the TX/NM state line as a surface
trough deepens over eastern NM. In contrast to the past few days,
this evolution will sharpen a dryline over the western South Plains
and SW TX Panhandle by early afternoon. Guidance has remained
consistent in only mixing this dryline about as far east as Hwy-385
by mid-afternoon, and this seems reasonable given the impressive
moisture in place to its east and only a weak westerly component to
the flow over eastern NM.

By mid to late afternoon, convective temperatures should be easily
reached along and west of I-27 as temperatures warm into the low to
mid 90s, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop as capping erodes almost completely. Confidence in how
widespread this initial storm activity becomes through the rest of
the afternoon is still uncertain given an initial lack of large
scale forcing. That being said, most guidance does indicate an
expansion in coverage of thunderstorms during the evening along and
east of I-27 as cold pools consolidate and activity likely becomes
more multi-cellular. The potential for more widespread severe
weather also appears slightly better today compared to yesterday,
with consensus pointing to MLCAPEs in excess of 3500 J/kg east of
the dryline by mid afternoon and bulk shear magnitudes of 40-50 kt.
Initial activity near and west of I-27 should pose more of a wind
and large hail threat, with straight hodographs favoring a potential
for splitting supercells. The severe threat should then transition
more towards damaging wind as the evening goes on, although it
should be noted that the tornado potential will also increase within
any remaining discrete convection later in the evening across the
Rolling Plains as a SSE low level jet intensifies. Finally, given
the heavy rainfall over the past several days, a localized flash
flooding threat may also develop with possible very high rain rates
given PWATs of 1" to 1.25". Storms will exit to our east overnight
with another mild and humid night in store area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday will feature mostly dry and hot conditions across the
forecast area with zonal flow aloft. Lee troughing will develop over
West Texas with a surface low over the Texas Panhandle. The dryline
will mix east through the morning hours with varying solutions from
models on the exact placement of the dryline by the afternoon. A few
models have the dryline setting up north to south across the far
southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. Southerly surface
winds east of the dryline will give way to decent enough low level
moisture and dewpoints in the lower 60s. The biggest uncertainty
with storms for Monday will be the capping inversion and lingering
cooler airmass from the storms Sunday night. With southeast surface
winds, temperatures may struggle to warm into the 80s. If convective
temperatures can be reached, the environment is supportive of
thunderstorms with plenty of buoyancy due to abundant CAPE values
and steep mid-level lapse rates. However, bulk shear values are
below 30 knots so pulsing short lived storms would be the main mode.
Storm chances will quickly diminish into the evening hours as the
dryline mixes farther east with the better instability, despite a
potential shortwave disturbance in the flow aloft.

The surface troughing will strengthen Tuesday as an upper trough
swings across the Plains. The warmest temperatures are expected
Tuesday with downsloping southwest winds giving way to triple digit
heat across much of the forecast area. Temperatures will likely be
just shy of any records. Conditions will remain dry as the dryline
keeps just east of the area. Surface cyclogenesis will slide south
across the area through the day Tuesday with a weak cold front
bringing northeast winds overnight. Heading into the middle of the
week and into next weekend, flow will shift to northwesterly aloft
as the pattern resembles an omega block. The ridge will build just
to the west of the forecast area with an upper low near Baja
California and the other one near the Great Lakes. Temperatures will
remain hot, but below triple digits with east southeast surface
upslope flow. Precipitation chances will return towards the end of
the week and into the weekend with increased low level moisture due
to the southeasterly surface flow and several weak disturbances in
the northwesterly flow aloft, which will give way to afternoon
storms developing along the higher terrain and being driven
southeast across West Texas. Storm details will be refined as the
forecast gets closer to the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Low ceilings have cleared at the three TAF sites with VFR
conditions expected this afternoon. An outflow boundary is
dropping southwest across the region, ahead of this boundary winds
are out of the south while behind it winds are out of the east.
This may lead to a wind shift at LBB and PVW if that boundary
manages to travel that far with wind speeds around 15 kts.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop west of LBB and PVW late
this afternoon and then move east through the evening hours
potentially impacting all three TAF sites. Frequent lightning,
large hail, and damaging wind gusts would all be possible with the
strongest storms. Thunderstorm activity will come to an end by
late tonight. With widespread low-level moisture in place
overnight, low clouds and fog are possible once again at all
three TAF sites which if it develops would persist through the
late morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...58