Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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810 FXUS64 KLZK 161042 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 542 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Another mainly calm cool night is ongoing early this Thu morning...with dry conditions and light/variable winds noted. Temps had dropped into the 60s for most areas...with just some patchy fog seen. Scattered convection was noted to the north and west of the state however...where SHRA/TSRA had formed under an upper level wave lifting ENE towards SW MO. The aforementioned upper wave/disturbance will continue shifting east over SRN MO today...with chances for convection increasing for NRN sections this morning. Chances will then increase further SE starting this afternoon as another upper wave moves east...further south of the morning system. A more significant upper shortwave to the west will move east towards the state tonight into Fri...with chances for SHRA/TSRA increasing for most of the area by late tonight into Fri as a result. Best POPs will be over NRN and SRN sections for Thu night into Fri...with less coverage expected for central sections. This will change for Fri afternoon and night as the main upper shortwave to the west moves into AR by the end of the short term period. Even so...think coverage will be mainly scattered in nature for most areas. The overall threat for seeing SVR Wx looks limited through the short term period. However...some storms could become strong to SVR each day...with some damaging winds and large hail possible with the strongest activity. Locally heavy rainfall could also be seen...but widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. Temps today will be coolest across NRN sections where rain chances/cloud cover will be greatest...with highs in the 70s to around 80 there. Further south...temps will warm into the 80s. For Fri...temps areawide look to remain in the 70s...though temps may approach 80 across the SE. Lows each morning will be upper 50s to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 An H500 trough and sfc cold front will be moving east of the state at the start of the period with rain chances tapering off by Saturday afternoon. A dry forecast remains in place for the upcoming weekend into early next week. The heat is expected to build and will make it feel more like Summer across the state than Spring. Anomalously high H500 heights originating from Mexico will extend northeastward toward the Great Lakes. This will contribute to well above normal temperatures for the upcoming weekend into early next week. Highs approaching or exceeding 90 F appear likely during this timeframe. Some breakdown in the H500 ridge will be seen by the end of the period. This will allow a mid-level trough to approach the state by mid-week along with a cold front. Temperatures are expected to cool by a few degrees and rain chances will return to the forecast Tue- Wed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Chances for convection increase this morning across the NRN terminals as precip to the west approaches NRN AR. Further south...mainly dry conditions are expected into the midday timeframe. However...some scattered convection may develop this afternoon...but more widespread convection will be seen this evening across the area. There may be a break in the precip by late in the period...but more chances for rain come beyond this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 83 64 73 62 / 30 70 90 30 Camden AR 86 65 80 64 / 20 80 50 30 Harrison AR 77 61 72 59 / 50 60 80 20 Hot Springs AR 85 64 79 63 / 20 70 70 30 Little Rock AR 87 67 79 65 / 20 70 80 30 Monticello AR 86 67 81 65 / 10 80 60 40 Mount Ida AR 84 64 78 61 / 30 70 70 30 Mountain Home AR 79 62 72 60 / 50 70 90 20 Newport AR 85 66 75 63 / 30 70 90 40 Pine Bluff AR 87 66 80 64 / 10 70 70 40 Russellville AR 84 64 76 62 / 40 60 80 30 Searcy AR 85 65 76 62 / 20 70 90 40 Stuttgart AR 87 67 78 65 / 10 70 80 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...62