Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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996 FXUS64 KLZK 181649 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1149 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Scattered SHRA/TSRA continue off an on early this Sat morning across central to NERN sections of the CWA under the upper shortwave axis moving slowly east over AR. Some isolated convection was also noted further SW...also under this axis. Expect this activity to continue into the morning hrs...gradually shifting east by after sunrise. While the threat for SVR Wx remains low...an isolated strong...briefly SVR storm could be seen. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. After the morning convection and patchy fog...expect conditions to become dry for most areas by late this morning as the upper shortwave axis moves east. Expect a mostly clear sky...and warm conditions to develop. Highs over the weekend will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s today...and a few deg warmer for Sun in the 80s to around 90. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s...and a few deg warmer for Sun night in the 60s to around 70. Expect the dry forecast to continue into the early part of the long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 An unsettled upper flow pattern wl be in place acrs the CONUS. H500 troughing wl be digging Swrd into the Pac-N/W. Mon into Tues, N/Wrn US troughing wl bcm confluent w/ a detached Pacific upper low/subtropical jet, resulting in broad troughing flow over the Wrn half of the CONUS, and a pronounced region of mean S/Wrly and diffluent flow over the Cntrl Plains. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected thru the first half of the new work week, as strong Srly sfc flow wl be in place, w/ daily hi temps in the low 90s expected at most locations. Chances for rain and storms are set to return to the region on Tues, but more lkly towards later Tues night, as deepening sfc cyclonic flow over the Cntrl Plains maneuvers N/Ewrd, and an asctd trailing cdfrnt sweeps S/Ewrd towards the FA. Covg of precip should incrs fm N/Wrn AR towards Cntrl and Srn AR late Tues night and into Wed. Severe potential remains conditional, w/ greater vertical shear displaced to the north, and current timing of greater convective covg trending towards the overnight PD of Tues/Wed. Some intermittent strong to briefly severe storms cannot be ruled out attm, but greater covg and intensity remains in question. Wed and thru the remainder of the PD, unsettled weather looks to persist, as the aforementioned cdfrnt is currently progged to stall out over the Cntrl third to Srn portion of the state, and serve as the focal point for daily covg of showers/storms. Slightly cooler daily high temps should resume under greater covg of rain/clouds thru the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 For the 18Z TAFs... Early morning fog had dissipated across northern TAF sites leaving VFR conditions for all area TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to continue under mostly clear skies through tonight. Winds will remain light and variable or northerly through Sunday afternoon. Under mostly clear skies and light winds overnight, expect at least MVFR fog to develop across northern and central Arkansas. Fog should remain shallow and be quick to dissipate in the morning. After 18Z winds will likely become established out of the south as high pressure slides east of Arkansas. Cavanaugh && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 83 64 87 67 / 20 0 0 0 Camden AR 86 65 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 81 61 86 66 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 86 64 89 67 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 86 67 89 69 / 20 0 0 0 Monticello AR 85 67 89 69 / 30 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 86 63 89 67 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 83 61 87 66 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 83 66 87 69 / 30 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 85 66 89 69 / 30 0 0 0 Russellville AR 85 64 89 68 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 83 64 87 66 / 30 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 83 67 87 69 / 30 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....72 AVIATION...66