Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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169 FXUS64 KLZK 240520 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1220 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Earlier convection has left a rather complex surface pattern across the state, with a number of pockets of low clouds mixed in with clear patches. I suspect a number of residual outflow boundaries remaining in place, although they are difficult to pinpoint. Arkansas will remain in the warm sector tonight with considerable amounts of moisture in place. Aloft, a southwesterly flow will continue, with several minor shortwaves propagating to the northeast thru the flow. Another round of convection is expected overnight, which should stabilize the atmosphere. Heading into tomorrow, the models are forecasting considerable destabilization in the warm sector by the afternoon hours, with afternoon CAPE values topping out between 3500-4000 j/kg. However, there are a couple of issues with that. First, it`s difficult to determine how much overnight convection may foul the atmosphere with low clouds and regions of highly stabilized air. This will put a damper on the model forecasts of high instability, at least in places. Also, the higher instability values are all elevated, and a considerable cap may be in place across much of the area. This will likely put a damper on some of the convection tomorrow despite the model forecasts of high instability. At the surface, a cold front will be pushing out of the Plains into the northwest part of the state tomorrow evening, and this will likely act as a trigger for another round of overnight convection, as the front slides into central Arkansas by Saturday morning and stalls. Overnight Friday into Saturday morning may see quite a bit of convection, and potentially heavy rainfall associated with the front. The key takeaway from this forecast is that there is high confidence that several rounds of strong (possibly severe) convection across the state thru the short term. The timing of these systems is of considerably lower confidence. More than likely, the bulk of the strongest thunderstorm activity will be nocturnal. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 An upper ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico to begin the long term period with southwest flow over Arkansas and an upper low over the Pacific Northwest. The upper low will move across the northern Plains and Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. An upper ridge then builds over the western U.S. Monday night and brings northwest flow to Arkansas Tuesday which continues through Thursday. A cold front will be in the Plains Sunday and move through Arkansas Sunday night with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe Sunday with large hail and damaging winds. Small rain chances continue on Monday and a couple of dry days begin on Tuesday with high pressure settling over the region. A cold front will approach from the north late Wednesday and a bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through the overnight hours will additional showers and thunderstorms moving into the state from LA/TX. These showers will likely affect central and southern terminals but VCSH has been written into TAFs to express uncertainity on timing and coverage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 84 67 87 72 / 50 50 20 50 Camden AR 89 69 89 71 / 10 40 10 10 Harrison AR 83 63 84 69 / 40 30 10 60 Hot Springs AR 86 68 87 70 / 30 60 20 30 Little Rock AR 88 70 89 74 / 50 60 20 40 Monticello AR 90 71 90 74 / 20 50 30 10 Mount Ida AR 85 67 87 70 / 20 50 10 30 Mountain Home AR 82 64 84 69 / 50 30 10 50 Newport AR 85 69 86 72 / 50 50 20 40 Pine Bluff AR 89 70 89 73 / 40 60 30 20 Russellville AR 86 68 87 70 / 30 40 10 50 Searcy AR 86 67 87 71 / 60 60 20 40 Stuttgart AR 87 70 87 74 / 50 60 30 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...73