Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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836 FXUS64 KLZK 280740 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 240 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Skies were mostly clear across AR this morning with temperatures starting out in the 60s. This afternoon, slight chance to chance showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over SW and W AR associated with the passage of an upper level disturbance near the ArkLaTex`s region. High temperatures today should be in the lower 80s to lower 90s. In the upper levels, NW flow will be in place as a ridge moves towards the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will be situated across the Mid and Upper MS Valleys. Clockwise flow around this area of high pressure will advect cooler and drier air into the region on light Nrly winds. Drier and cooler air will remain entrenched across portions of the state through mid-week. On Wednesday, chance PoPs will increase across a larger portion of the state with the passage of another upper level impulse. Rain chances should be greatest in the afternoon and more widespread in coverage over W and SW AR. High temperatures should be slightly cooler than Tuesday thanks to precipitation and cloud cover, with readings only climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. Organized severe weather is not expected during the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 To begin the period, NW flow aloft will be over the area as surface high pressure controls the weather pattern. Even with high pressure over the state...much of the period will be unsettled as several disturbances move across the area under northwest flow. This could result in MCS`s moving southeastward across the state. Even though PoPs will remain elevated through the period, it is likely that many locations will not see rain every day...it will all just depend on the track of the storms (or MCS`s). As of this forecast package, the chance for severe weather is on the low side. But changes to the forecast are possible over the next few days. Any storms would pose a greater risk for damaging straight-line winds. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the period with overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Patchy fog may develop across the state before sunrise since skies are clear, winds are calm, and ground level moisture is plentiful. Dew pt depressions at some sites are already 4 or less. Where fog develops conds may become MVFR, otherwise VFR conds will prevail through the remainder of the period. Mentioned VCSH over Nrn terminals Tues afternoon associated with a passing upper level disturbance. Activity should diminish after sunset Tues. Winds will be light and variable through the TAF cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 63 79 61 / 10 10 20 10 Camden AR 88 65 80 63 / 10 20 50 20 Harrison AR 82 60 77 59 / 20 10 20 10 Hot Springs AR 87 65 79 62 / 20 30 50 20 Little Rock AR 89 68 82 65 / 10 20 40 20 Monticello AR 90 68 82 65 / 10 20 40 20 Mount Ida AR 86 63 78 62 / 30 30 50 20 Mountain Home AR 84 60 78 60 / 20 10 20 10 Newport AR 87 64 80 63 / 10 10 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 89 67 81 64 / 10 20 40 20 Russellville AR 88 65 79 63 / 20 20 40 10 Searcy AR 88 64 79 62 / 10 10 30 10 Stuttgart AR 88 67 80 65 / 10 20 30 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...70