Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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879 FXUS64 KMAF 021747 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1247 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Zonal flow continues for the short term period. What that means for today is dry air mixing east into the western Permian Basin and Trans Pecos, creating a dryline off which isolated to scattered convection will form this afternoon and evening. Any storms that form will have a chance to become severe with strong winds and large hail the main threats. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday though still near normal for this time of year. Tomorrow westerly mid level flow continues to push the hot and dry air out west into the Permian Basin and possibly all the way to the western Low Rolling Plains. This sends temperatures well above normal with highs in most locations exceeding 100 degrees. All storms are expected to be east of the CWA though one or two could develop in Scurry and Mitchell counties. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The long term forecast finally makes a return to a quieter and more benign weather pattern through the early to middle of next week. The mid-level ridge and associated surface high pressure should slowly shift back westward towards the southern Rocky Mountains Tuesday into at least Thursday. This results in dry northwesterly flow in the mid to upper-levels and generally weak southwesterly flow near the surface. This means there is no rain during this part of the forecast. Temperatures quickly become very hot once again with widespread 100s overspreading most of the region and the hottest temperatures expected along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys. This pattern should slowly change towards the end of the coming week. An upper-low off the coast of Baja should slowly slide into the southwestern CONUS. As this occurs, the threat of thunderstorms makes their return to the western higher elevations. This will be supported by the return of moist southwesterly mid to upper-level flow and weak disturbances kicked out from the upper-low. Additionally, a glancing blow from thunderstorms moving out of eastern New Mexico into southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin can not be ruled out as this activity is pushed southeast. Overall thunderstorm coverage should be isolated to scattered but any rainfall will be beneficial for the parched western regions. Temperatures remain hot despite the influence of the upper-low though they should be a touch cooler as heights come down slightly. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Winds will be elevated and at least intermittently gusty at all terminals this afternoon, out of the S/SE at MAF/FST, and S/SW at CNM, HOB, INK, and PEQ. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly impacting MAF and FST, though low confidence precludes any mention at this time. Thus, will monitor and amend as needed. Winds become lighter overnight, and shift to the W/NW Monday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 103 70 104 / 20 0 0 0 Carlsbad 65 102 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 75 102 71 106 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 70 104 69 104 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 65 94 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 64 100 63 101 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 58 97 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 71 104 68 103 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 71 103 69 103 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 68 105 66 106 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...84