664
ACUS11 KWNS 250149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250149
ILZ000-MOZ000-250315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Missouri and far western Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302...

Valid 250149Z - 250315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe hail/wind threat may persist for another hour or
two across eastern Missouri and far western Illinois as a line of
thunderstorms approaches the Missouri River.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convective intensity has largely
waned across much of WW 302 - mainly due to an acceleration of an
undercutting outflow boundary/cold pool expansion. The anticipated
upscale growth into a more linear cluster does not appear to be
materializing as expected; however, convective development continues
along an eastward migrating cold front, including embedded
supercells based on KLSX imagery. Nearly straight hodographs above 1
km (as sampled by the KLSX VWP) with deep-layer shear vectors
somewhat orthogonal to the front will continue to promote
line-embedded supercells as this activity begins to propagate
east/southeast along a diffuse buoyancy gradient (which is roughly
situated along the MO river). The severe threat for much of WW 302
will continue to diminish amid the onset of nocturnal cooling and
further cold pool expansion to the north of the St. Louis area, but
a more focused severe threat may persist downstream for the next
hour or so with an attendant risk of large hail and damaging winds.

..Moore.. 05/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38279191 38599123 38909060 38889020 38588975 38198943
            37818946 37548997 37449040 37489084 37669130 37959184
            38089203 38279191