170
ACUS11 KWNS 220056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220055
MOZ000-ARZ000-ILZ000-OKZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0882
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Areas affected...parts of west central Illinois and northeastern
through southwestern Missouri..northeastern Oklahoma and
northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 278...280...

Valid 220055Z - 220300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278, 280 continues.

SUMMARY...Stronger thunderstorm development, including a few
supercells, may become increasingly confined to portions of
northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas/adjacent southern
Missouri through 9-11 PM CDT.  A new severe weather watch may be
needed across parts of northern Arkansas soon.

DISCUSSION...The cold front appears to have overtaken the dryline
across western into central Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma, with
little appreciable increase in thunderstorm development.  Widely
scattered strong storms persist, including a few  supercells, but an
initial corridor of drier/more stable air across parts of south
central and east central Missouri into west central Illinois remains
a complicating factor for maintenance of this activity through mid
to late evening.

A more recent flare-up of convection immediately to the southwest
through northwest of St. Louis may have been aided by weakening
inhibition associated with leading edge of mid-level cooling near
the eastern periphery of the corridor of drier air, further
complicating  the maintenance of strong convection beyond the next
hour or two.

Strongest thunderstorm development may begin to become focused ahead
of the southeastward advancing cold front, on the southern periphery
of the cyclonic mid-level flow and east of the dryline, across
northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas through 9-11 PM.  This
may include a few supercells accompanied by a risk for severe hail,
locally strong surface gusts and potential for a tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   40539230 40069086 39989081 37589146 37109112 36609007
            35289056 34749480 35429576 36679464 39489283 40539230