Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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465 ACUS11 KWNS 281841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281840 TXZ000-282015- Mesoscale Discussion 1047 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Portions of western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 281840Z - 282015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across western TX. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are expected, and a Tornado Watch will be issued soon. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway ahead of the dryline across the western TX Panhandle, where convective outflow progressing westward from earlier storms is providing enhanced lift. These storms are developing amid an environment characterized by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Supercells are expected to evolve through the afternoon, accompanied by large hail (some stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter), along with severe gusts and a few tornadoes. With time, storms may merge into an MCS later this afternoon. Should this occur, severe gusts will become the main threat. A Tornado watch will be issued shortly to address the severe threat. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33279996 33030048 33020167 33180266 33350286 34060286 34610253 34680110 34660061 34550025 33279996