Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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851 ACUS11 KWNS 241848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241848 OKZ000-TXZ000-242015- Mesoscale Discussion 0933 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and northeast Texas...eastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241848Z - 242015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage through the afternoon. Very large hail (some stones possibly reaching 4 inches in diameter) and severe gusts are the main threats, though a couple of tornadoes could also occur. A WW issuance will be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Cumulus are gradually deepening ahead of a cold front sagging southward across central OK, and a dryline over central TX. Ahead of these boundaries, surface temperatures are warming well into the 80s F amid mid to upper 70s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading this very moist, deep boundary layer, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE already in place over much of eastern OK into northeastern and central TX. MLCAPE may peak to 5000 J/kg in spots, and when considering elongated hodographs (contributing to 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear), splitting supercells are expected. These supercells may become quite intense, fostering prolonged periods of hail suspension, perhaps allowing some stones to grow up to 4 inches in diameter. Severe gusts may also occur with the stronger storm cores. Limited directional and speed shear in the lowest few km suggests that the overall tornado threat may be limited. However, robust right-moving supercells could produce tornadoes given the extreme instability, especially if any storms manage to traverse meso-gamma scale boundaries. A WW issuance will be needed in the next couple of hours to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31429623 31149669 30889732 30809787 30899825 31019842 31319869 33289772 35739623 36459534 36309488 35439454 34049483 32219580 31429623