222
FXUS62 KMHX 300847
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
447 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will finish pushing through the area this morning.
Shortwave passing through trough aloft leads to chance of
showers and tstorms tonight. Behind this wave, cooler high
pressure builds overhead for the weekend. High pressure then
builds offshore early next week with near normal conditions
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 0400 Thursday...Cyclonic flow continues aloft with
localized weak SFC high briefly building into the region today.
Nerly flow will advect drier air into the region with Tds
dropping into the low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to around
60 along the coast. The drier air and subsidence aloft should
preclude any shower development in the afternoon but cannot
completely rule out an isolated shower along the sea breeze,
which is not expected to develop until late afternoon as
background Nerly flow will be dominant most of the day. The
Canadian continues to be the only model showing QPF during the
day. Have kept highest PoPs over the sea/sound/river breeze
convergence areas for Nerly background flow, but kept below
mentionable. Temps will be very comfortable for late May with
highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s inland and mid to upper 70s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 0400 Thursday...A potent shortwave and an associated
100kt upper jet are forecast to round the base of the upper
trough tonight. Modest low-mid level moistening beneath cool
temps aloft will support a period of weak instability timed out
with the passage of the shortwave and very weak SFC troughing.
This should support the development of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms that will move from NW to SE along a line
from Martin and Washington Co toward DownEast Carteret after
midnight. Severe weather is not expected with this activity,
but with cooler temps aloft, perhaps some pea size hail could
occur should any of the stronger updrafts reach their full
potential. MinTs in the mid to upper 50s inland, low 60s Inner
Banks, mid 60s Sern beaches/OBX.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Cool high pressure will build into the area
Friday and into the weekend with below normal temperatures and
low humidity expected. Then, high pressure will slide offshore
early next week with a return to a summery pattern featuring
daily scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs near normal.

Friday through Sunday...A few morning showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Friday as a reinforcing front moves offshore,
but then expect mostly dry conditions through the weekend.
Cooler high pressure will remain centered to the west this
weekend which will lead to below normal temperatures and low
humidity...a welcome sight here in early June. Highs will reach
the upper 70s to low 80s, while low temps dip to near record
lows Friday night (in the upper 40s to low 50s inland), and then
mid to upper 50s Saturday night.

Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will build offshore
early next week allowing for a return of summer-like warmth and
humidity. Increasing moisture will introduce a risk for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chances
for rain (~30%) Wednesday as weak upper level impulses move
through a mostly zonal flow. Temps will return to near normal,
with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 each day, and lows
mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Friday/...
As of 0130 Thursday...VFR flight cats are expected through the
TAF period as high pressure builds into the area after FROPA.
Some of the high res models are forecasting an area of IFR
ceilings developing over the Outer Banks early Thu and spreading
inland toward the northern TAF sites. This still seems to be an
outlier with most guidance backing off on this solution. Light
winds and lower dewpoints should limit fog threat overnight,
however there will be a brief period behind the front where Ts
will cool rapidly before the surge of winds arrive. Coastal TAF
sites may briefly see MVFR VIS, but this threat will diminish
sharply once winds pick back up. VFR expected through the day
Thurs with just a diurnal CU field in the afternoon and light
winds mostly out of N.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
the long term as high pressure remains in place across the
region. However, strong cooling each morning could result in the
formation of patchy fog which could bring periods of sub-VFR
visibilities to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday Night/...
As of 0400 Thursday...Front currently pushing through Sern
waters with brief Nerly surge of winds directly behind it, gusts
approaching 25kt. Decent boating conditions expected through
the short term. High pressure briefly build in Thursday with
winds diminishing some while veering to NE to E through the day.
Seas will continue around 2-3 ft, highest over outer Central
waters where 4ft possible. Shortwave traveling through the
trough aloft passes over the FA after midnight tonight leading
to chance of showers and tstorms working from NW to SE across
the Pam/Pungo Rivers, Wern extent of PamSound, DownEast
Carteret, and then across Cape Lookout around sunrise Fri.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Good boating conditions expected through
the weekend and into early next week with high pressure
overhead.

Winds will be N/NNE 10-15 kts Friday, and then subside slight to
5-10 kts Saturday. Return flow develops Sunday with winds
becoming SSW at 5-10 kts. Winds then become SW at 10-15 kts
Monday. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...SK/CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB