982
FXUS62 KMHX 190608
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
208 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system and its associated fronts impact ENC this
evening before pushing offshore by Sunday morning bringing
unsettled weather to the area. High pressure ridging then builds
in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week
before the next potential frontal system late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...No major changes to the forecast.
Lingering light showers are mainly east of hwy 17, moving out
through the rest of tonight. NE flow will keep lows near 60
inland and for NOBX, increasing to the mid 60s at the Crystal
Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...No major changes with this update.
Continued trending down with PoPs for Sunday, with Schc for
light showers south of hwy 264 where the moisture profile is a
bit more impressive, and no mentionable PoPs to the north.
Instability remains non- existent with NE flow, and no forcing
is anticipated through Sunday. For this reason, the forecast
will likely to continue trending drier with subsequent updates.

As of 330 PM Saturday... Upper level trough will be centered
over the Mid-Atlantic to start our day out with this trough
pushing offshore by SUn evening. Mid level shortwave will also
push offshore by SUn evening as well. AT the surface low
pressure off the coast will continue to push further out to seas
as high pressure wedges itself across the Carolinas from the
north bringing dry air to the region. Latest trends have come in
drier for SUnday as it looks like the low will be farther away
from the coast than previously thought which limits moisture
availability across the area. As a result have lowered PoP`s to
SChc across just about all of the area with further reductions
possible in coming updates. Otherwise steady NE`rly flow will
keep temps on the cooler side with highs only getting into the
60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...High pressure builds in from the north for
the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from
the west toward the latter half of the week.

Sunday night...Drier conditions ensue Sun night with lows in the
50s.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with
steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 70s,
then by Tue and esp Wed into Thu, rise through the 80s and back
above climo. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise
into the 60s by mid week.

Friday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a
shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s
end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a
warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this
far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday morning/...
As of 2 AM Sunday...Ceilings have lowered to IFR/LIFR behind the
showers moving south and east with the warm front. Ceilings
will recover slowly tomorrow, transitioning to MVFR in the
afternoon, and VFR late evening into Sunday night. Closer to
OBX, low ceilings will persist through Sunday due to NE flow
from the low offshore. A second wave of low cloud cover will be
moving in from the north later Sunday night, but coverage is
expected to remain SCT at this point. NE winds increase to
around 10-15 kt across the coastal plain and 15-20 kt across the
OBX. Slight chance of light rain and showers developing for
southern terminals (OAJ, ISO, EWN) in the afternoon Sunday, but
a lack of instability will prevent convection from becoming deep
enough for significant impacts.

LONG TERM /Sun afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A low pressure system will impact the area
through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. Pred
VFR conditions are expected early through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday... Quasi stationary warm front stretches
from NW to SE across the Pamlico SOund and adjacent coastal
waters this afternoon and shouldn`t move much until a developing
low pressure system to the west quickly tracks E`wards tonight
and brings this front south as a cold front tonight. To the
south of the front, 5-10 kt SW`rly winds with 1-3 ft seas are
noted while to the north of the front 5-10 kt NE`rly winds and
2-4 ft seas are noted this afternoon. Widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop along this boundary
this evening, the strongest of which could produce gusty winds
of 34kt+ and small hail. As the low pushes offshore and the
front moves S`wards precip chances will lower after 06Z and
winds across all waters will shift from north to south to a
NE`rly direction and increase with widespread 15-25 kt NE`rly
winds with gusts up to 25- 20 kts expected across just about all
of our waters except the Pamlico/Pungo River. As a result, have
small crafts just about everywhere to account for this N`rly
surge. Elevated N`rly winds continue into Sun evening.

Seas will begin to build to 3-6 ft Saturday night into Sunday
morning within the strengthening northeasterly surge of wind behind
the departing low and remain around 3-6 ft with some 7 ft seas
possibly noted along the outer coastal waters Sun afternoon and
evening.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will shift off
of the NC coast during the day Sun, with gusty nerly winds in
it`s wake. Solid SCA cond expected across all waters and sounds,
including Alligator River, through Sunday as winds inc to 20-30
kt. SCA cond linger into Monday evening for Pamlico Sound and
the coastal waters as moderately gusty ne winds keep seas
elevated and wind gusts aoa 25 kt. Seas expected to drop below 6
ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     Monday night for AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     Monday night for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RCF/RJ
LONG TERM...TL/RCF
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RCF