Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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247 FXUS62 KMLB 280757 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 357 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 - Heat continues with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices 100 to 105 into mid-week - Rain and storm chances increase from mid morning into the afternoon today - Daytime rain showers and thunderstorms persist into this weekend Today-Tonight...A weak cool front will enter north Florida today, before stalling north of east central Florida into tonight. This feature will aid a passing mid-level shortwave in developing scattered showers and thunderstorms into this afternoon, with the east coast sea breeze acting to enhance convection near the coast. PWATs today are forecast between 1.75-2", providing ample moisture for showers and storms to develop. A limiting factor, however, will be drier air aloft. While dry air could hinder updraft growth today, any storms that do develop will be capable of strong wind gusts to around 50mph, thanks to DCAPE values 1100-1400J/kg. The hail threat will be limited by 500mb temperatures only around -7C. CAMs suggest showers and storms pushing southward from north Florida this morning into early afternoon. Then, meeting the east coast sea breeze from around the Cape southward later this afternoon into this evening. PoPs today around 30-40% along and north of I-4 and 50% to the south. Westerly winds will prevail today, helping to keep the late- developing east coast sea breeze pinned to the coastal counties this afternoon. Thus, little relief is forecast from high temperatures forecast once again in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices 100-105. A few records could be threatened today, mainly at Melbourne, Vero Beach, and Fort Pierce. See the Climate section for more details. Convection is forecast to linger along the coast this evening, mainly along the Space and Treasure Coasts, before pushing offshore into tonight. Once convection moves into the Atlantic waters, dry conditions are then forecast for the remainder of the overnight hours. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s. Wednesday-Friday...The weak front is forecast to push southward into the local area Wednesday, then linger through the remainder of the work week. Energy pulses aloft will maintain daily shower and thunderstorm chances. However, PoPs through the period will remain around 40% or less, as drier air provides a limiting factor for convection. In addition, developing onshore flow will aid the east coast sea breeze, with the daily collision occurring over central Florida Wednesday, then west central Florida late week. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 90s persisting. Will start to see some relief late week, though, thanks to onshore flow. By Thursday and Friday, coastal areas look to remain in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Saturday-Monday...High pressure building into the western Atlantic will finally shunt the lingering cool front into southern Florida this weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible. However, drier air will continue to be a limiting factor. Also, a tightening pressure gradient as the ridge develops will increase onshore flow, preventing inland progression of the west coast sea breeze and, therefore, a collision near the CWA. Temperatures will become more seasonal, reaching the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Overnight, temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Today-Tonight...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours, as a weak cool front approaches the area. A few storms could produce strong wind gusts. Otherwise, favorable boating conditions prevailing, with winds remaining under 12kts. Offshore winds this morning will back south/southeasterly this afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Then, winds will once again become offshore overnight. Seas 1-3ft. Wednesday-Saturday...The aforementioned front will linger around the area through the week, continuing shower and thunderstorm chances each day. However, will see generally favorable boating conditions persist, as onshore winds remain below 15kts through the work week. By Saturday, though, high pressure building into the western Atlantic is forecast to increase winds to up to 15-20kts, leading to poor boating conditions. Seas 1-3ft fore most of the period building to up to 4ft on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions persist today, as min RH values fall to 35-45% for much of the area today. Increased shower and thunderstorm chances (up to 30-50%), mainly during the afternoon hours, will do little to provide relief from hot high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Westerly winds prevail today, though will see winds back east to southeast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops but remains pinned near the coast. High mixing heights will lead to another day of excellent dispersion, with control issues likely. Wednesday-Friday...Drier air moving into the area mid to late week will lead to very sensitive fire weather conditions as min RH values dip to as low as 25-30% over the interior, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Coastal areas will remain between 35-50%. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day. Fortunately, wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15mph, as northerly winds early Wednesday veer onshore and remain that way through the period. Dispersion will remain excellent, so control issues will likely persist. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Hot afternoon temperatures today will once again threaten a few records, mainly along the coast from Melbourne southward. The current record high temperatures around the area are as follows: Record High Year Daytona Beach 99 2000 Leesburg 98 2000 Sanford 100 1953 Orlando 99 2000 Melbourne 97 2000 Vero Beach 96 1967 Fort Pierce 95 2000 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 137 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the terminals early this morning with winds remaining light and variable. Winds will pick up out of the west at 5 to 10 knots across all terminals today, with some places along the coast gusting up to 15 knots at times. An approaching weak frontal boundary combined with the east coast sea breeze will lead to increasing rain and storm chances across the area after 12Z, with VCSH and VCTS possible at all terminals. Will likely need to add in TEMPOs with the next forecast package as confidence in timing of storms increases. Lingering VCSH will be possible until around 03Z along the coastal terminals from the Cape southward. Activity will then diminish after 03Z, with winds becoming light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 72 91 70 / 30 10 10 0 MCO 94 74 96 71 / 40 10 10 0 MLB 94 74 91 73 / 50 30 20 10 VRB 95 72 92 72 / 50 40 20 10 LEE 92 73 95 71 / 30 0 10 0 SFB 95 73 96 71 / 30 10 10 0 ORL 94 74 97 73 / 40 10 10 0 FPR 95 72 92 71 / 50 40 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Tollefsen