899
FXUS62 KMLB 291357
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
957 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...Continued Hot Today with Afternoon High Temperatures in the
Mid to Upper 90s West of I-95...

...Sensitive Fire Weather Conditions Continue...

Current-Tonight...Weak frontal boundary will usher in drier air
and continue to slide southward across ECFL where it will stall
around Lake Okeechobee. Surface winds will veer to NW/N behind
this feature with speeds gradually approaching 10-15 mph with some
higher gusts. An earlier initiation of the ECSB as winds continue
to veer winds out of the NE/E from the coast inland thru the
afternoon. Deepest moisture values will be associated in vicinity
of the front and hence greatest convective threat across
Okeechobee County, southern Brevard, and the Treasure Coast.
Highest PoPs southward 20-30pct. Primary storm threats include
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds to around 50 mph locally,
small hail, and heavy downpours. Diurnal activity will wind down
near mid-evening well south, with mainly dry conditions overnight.

The heat continues with M-U90s interior and L90s near the coast.
Peak heat indices well into the 90s, except 100-105F south of the
Melbourne-Kenansville line. Continued mild and humid overnight
with mins in the U60s to L70s and probably in the M70s for barrier
islands.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Today-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail
through mid-week. A weak cool front pushes into the area today,
confining afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances to the
Treasure Coast waters. By Thursday, no mentionable PoPs are
forecast for the local Atlantic waters. Northwesterly winds early
in the mornings will veer northeast/east into the afternoons, as
the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15kts. Seas 1-2ft.

Friday-Sunday...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into
this weekend, as high pressure building into the western Atlantic
increases onshore winds to around 15kts or even 15-20kts at times.
PoPs remain 30% or less through the period. Seas 1-3ft Friday will
build to up to 4-5ft this weekend, as winds increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Today...Drier air filters into the local area today, with min RH
values falling to 25-35% over the interior west of I-95 and
40-50% for coastal locations. Very near critical fire weather
conditions are expected today, with light northerly winds this
morning veering onshore at around 10mph this afternoon, very dry
fuels, and excellent dispersion. Temperatures will also rise into
the mid to upper 90s over the interior and lower 90s along the
coast. A few showers or lightning storms will be possible along
and inland from the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but
precipitation is not otherwise forecast.

Thursday-This Weekend...Similar conditions will persist into
Thursday, with min RH once again forecast between 25-35% west of
I-95 and 40-50% along the coast. Onshore winds are expected to
increase to around 10mph in the afternoon hours, with very good to
excellent dispersion and high temperatures in the 90s. The
difference will be the lack of forecast precipitation, with only
areas along the northern shore of Lake Okeechobee forecast at a
15% chance of rain and storms.

Will begin to see some improvement in min RH late week into this
weekend. However, min RH values will remain near-critical over
the interior. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist,
as onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15mph and
precipitation chances remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Patchy MVFR CIGs/VSBYs through 13Z as a frontal boundary sags
southward across LEE/DAB/SFB/MCO/TIX; otherwise VFR. This weak
front will push south of MCO after sunrise with a NW-N wind shift
then stall near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon. Winds becoming NNW
to N 10-12 knots and gusty behind the front then veering E/NE as
the inland-moving east coast sea breeze pushes steadily inland
during the afternoon. Most terminals will remain dry though
isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible near and to the south of the
front, mainly across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast in
the aftn. Greatest potential looks to be near KSUA, so have
maintained a VCSH mention there starting at 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  70  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  97  72  96  72 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  92  72  90  73 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  93  71  91  71 /  20   0  10  10
LEE  96  71  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  97  71  95  71 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  97  73  96  73 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  93  70  91  70 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly