Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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984 FXUS62 KMLB 291745 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 145 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Predominantly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Went ahead and added VCTS to KFPR-KSUA for ISO TSRA/SHRA 21Z-00Z, and can`t rule out a short-fused TEMPO depending on convective development. All other terminals remain dry. Wind Nrly 5-15 kts with occasional gusts veer to Erly behind the sea breeze, developing around 18Z and reaching the inland terminals after 21Z, becoming light and variable overnight after 02Z. Winds wake up NNE-NE at 5-10 kts Thursday morning, becoming NE-ENE around 10 kts behind the sea breeze. Mostly dry conditions Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...Continued Hot Today with Afternoon High Temperatures in the Mid to Upper 90s West of I-95... ...Sensitive Fire Weather Conditions Continue... Current-Tonight...Weak frontal boundary will usher in drier air and continue to slide southward across ECFL where it will stall around Lake Okeechobee. Surface winds will veer to NW/N behind this feature with speeds gradually approaching 10-15 mph with some higher gusts. An earlier initiation of the ECSB as winds continue to veer winds out of the NE/E from the coast inland thru the afternoon. Deepest moisture values will be associated in vicinity of the front and hence greatest convective threat across Okeechobee County, southern Brevard, and the Treasure Coast. Highest PoPs southward 20-30pct. Primary storm threats include frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds to around 50 mph locally, small hail, and heavy downpours. Diurnal activity will wind down near mid-evening well south, with mainly dry conditions overnight. The heat continues with M-U90s interior and L90s near the coast. Peak heat indices well into the 90s, except 100-105F south of the Melbourne-Kenansville line. Continued mild and humid overnight with mins in the U60s to L70s and probably in the M70s for barrier islands. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Today-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail through mid-week. A weak cool front pushes into the area today, confining afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances to the Treasure Coast waters. By Thursday, no mentionable PoPs are forecast for the local Atlantic waters. Northwesterly winds early in the mornings will veer northeast/east into the afternoons, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15kts. Seas 1-2ft. Friday-Sunday...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this weekend, as high pressure building into the western Atlantic increases onshore winds to around 15kts or even 15-20kts at times. PoPs remain 30% or less through the period. Seas 1-3ft Friday will build to up to 4-5ft this weekend, as winds increase. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Today...Drier air filters into the local area today, with min RH values falling to 25-35% over the interior west of I-95 and 40-50% for coastal locations. Very near critical fire weather conditions are expected today, with light northerly winds this morning veering onshore at around 10mph this afternoon, very dry fuels, and excellent dispersion. Temperatures will also rise into the mid to upper 90s over the interior and lower 90s along the coast. A few showers or lightning storms will be possible along and inland from the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but precipitation is not otherwise forecast. Thursday-This Weekend...Similar conditions will persist into Thursday, with min RH once again forecast between 25-35% west of I-95 and 40-50% along the coast. Onshore winds are expected to increase to around 10mph in the afternoon hours, with very good to excellent dispersion and high temperatures in the 90s. The difference will be the lack of forecast precipitation, with only areas along the northern shore of Lake Okeechobee forecast at a 15% chance of rain and storms. Will begin to see some improvement in min RH late week into this weekend. However, min RH values will remain near-critical over the interior. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist, as onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15mph and precipitation chances remain low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 89 71 88 / 0 10 0 20 MCO 72 95 72 92 / 0 10 0 30 MLB 72 90 73 88 / 0 10 10 30 VRB 71 91 72 90 / 10 10 10 30 LEE 71 95 72 92 / 0 10 0 30 SFB 71 95 71 92 / 0 10 0 30 ORL 74 95 73 92 / 0 10 0 30 FPR 70 91 71 90 / 10 10 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Haley