Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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858 FXUS64 KMOB 261145 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 645 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Dry and warm conditions expected today as the upper ridge amplifies over the area. Strong subsidence under the ridge will act to suppress shower and storm development. Monday will be more active as the ridge flattens and an upper trough moves across the Mississippi River Valley. An associated front will move into the area during the afternoon with an increase in the coverage of showers and storms. The increased lift and shear in the vicinity of front will lead to the potential of strong or isolated severe storms. The main threat will be gusty winds and hail in the stronger storms. SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe storms for much of the area Monday afternoon for this threat. Today and Monday will remain hot. Daytime highs will warm into the upper 80s along the coast to lower 90s further inland. Max heat index values today will near 100 degrees, but should remain below the triple digits for most of the area. Heat index values on Monday will climb into the 100-105 range across much of the area. /13 SHORT/LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The boundary may stall just south of the coastline on Tuesday, which would keep isolated chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. There remain a great deal of uncertainty as to how far south and how quickly the front is able to reach, so will maintain isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the boundary is expected to have dissipated with high pressure and upper ridging building back into the area. This will bring hot and dry conditions back to the region, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. /73 MARINE... Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue through Monday. Winds will be slightly higher in the bays and sounds with the afternoon seabreeze. A cold front will approach from the north on Monday and push offshore by Tuesday night. A light diurnal flow pattern will follow in the wake of the front, with offshore flow at night becoming onshore during the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 88 75 89 72 93 68 91 68 / 0 0 30 10 20 10 10 10 Pensacola 87 77 88 75 92 71 90 70 / 0 0 20 20 10 10 10 10 Destin 85 77 86 76 89 72 88 71 / 0 0 20 20 10 10 10 10 Evergreen 92 72 91 68 92 64 91 63 / 0 10 50 30 10 10 10 10 Waynesboro 92 73 93 68 92 65 89 64 / 0 20 40 20 10 10 10 10 Camden 91 72 90 67 89 64 88 63 / 0 10 50 20 10 10 10 10 Crestview 90 71 90 70 94 65 92 64 / 0 0 40 20 10 10 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob