853
AWUS01 KWNH 261451
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0327
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1051 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...much of Indiana, western Ohio, and far eastern
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261450Z - 262050Z

Summary...A band of gradually intensifying convection across
eastern Illinois and southwestern Indiana will produce areas of
1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates at times.  At least a few instances of
flash flooding are possible as these storms move eastward toward
Ohio through mid-afternoon (20Z or so).

Discussion...An ongoing band of storms (currently along an axis
from IKK/Kankakee, IL southward to LWV/Vicennes, IL) was moving
slowly eastward this morning, with individual cells within that
band exhibiting a more northward trajectory.  The cells were
gradually intensifying, and were in a destabilizing environment,
with southerly flow aiding in northward advancement of 60s/low 70s
F dewpoints across southern Indiana.  1-1.5 inch PW values and
areas of MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg were also assisting in storm
intensification, and MRMS recently estimated rain rates of around
1-1.25 inch/hr near the more robust convective cells.

The ongoing scenario should translate slowly eastward through the
day, with areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates continuing to
translate eastward across southern/central Indiana into
southwestern Ohio through 20Z.  Recent convective trends indicate
rainfall spreading into the central Indiana region between
1530-17Z.  Additionally, models suggest continued warm/moist
advection ahead of the band into portions of central
Indiana/western Ohio that should aid in maintaining convective
intensity and heavy rainfall risk through the afternoon.  Flash
flooding is possible given widespread areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr FFG
thresholds across the region that should be exceeded on a
localized basis.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41378531 41168397 39988343 38848374 38058585
            38038726 38728770 40558792 41198758