400
AWUS01 KWNH 030719
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-031300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0383
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...West-Central to Southwest KS...Northwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030715Z - 031300Z

SUMMARY...A localized threat of flash flooding will be possible
over areas of west-central to southwest KS over the next few hours
as a small-scale complex of thunderstorms moves gradually down to
the southeast. This may also reach portions of northwest OK after
dawn.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar imagery has been showing some
upscale growth and intensification of a relatively small and
compact MCS over west-central KS. This convective mass has been
forming in rather close proximity to a surface low and an
attendant outflow boundary that was produced by earlier convection
farther to the north. The airmass over the region is rather
unstable with MUCAPE values of as much as 1500 to 2000 J/kg, and
there is a southerly low-level jet of 40+ kts fostering fairly
strong moisture convergence into the southern flank of the MCS
based off the most recent VWP data.

Some forward propagation of this MCS down to the southeast is
expected over the next few hours, with the low-level jet likely
favoring some persistence of this activity into the early morning
hours. The recent runs of the HRRR suggest that this MCS may be
able to survive a trek through southwest KS and eventually into
northwest OK.

Already some of the rainfall rates are on the order of 1 to 2
inches/hour with the stronger cells, and some storm total amounts
along the path of the MCS may reach 2 to 4 inches. This should
promote a localized threat for some flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38670028 38419951 37839855 37109816 36549860
            36469974 37070121 37850196 38240156 38640118