013
AWUS01 KWNH 030337
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-030735-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0380
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1136 PM EDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern TX...Western/Central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030335Z - 030735Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue for at
least a few more hours across areas of eastern TX and will move
back into move into areas of western and central LA. Some
cell-training concerns are expected to persist in the near-term,
especially over eastern TX, and this will foster additional
concerns for some flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery continues to show the advance of a
long-lived MCS across areas of eastern TX with the heavy shower
and thunderstorm activity bowing through areas of northwest LA.
The convection is aligned just north of a pre-existing outflow
boundary and is interacting with a substantial pool of instability
along it. MUCAPE values are locally as high 2000 to 3000 J/kg, and
the environment is quite moist with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches.

The main concern over the next few hours will tend to be the
southwest flank of the MCS involving areas of far eastern TX and
into west-central LA where the convection has become aligned in
more of a west-to-east training fashion given the orientation of
the convection with the deeper layer flow. The MCS continues to
foster some locally very cold convective tops and at least modest
southwest low-level inflow around the southwest flank of the MCS
should tend to maintain this activity for at least a few more
hours.

Rainfall rates are quite high with the stronger convective cores,
and capable of reaching 2.5"/hour. The MCS should weaken after
06Z, but at least in the short-term, there may be a sufficient
level of additional cell-training to promote additional 3 to 4+
inch rainfall totals. Given the very moist antecedent conditions
over the region from recent rainfall, these additional totals may
favor some additional instances of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32859297 32769227 32309159 31479154 30889203
            30809307 31099458 31469566 32009543 32109468
            32329383