401
FXUS63 KMPX 061049
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
549 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds today will gust as high as 30 to 40 mph.

- A few showers are possible this afternoon, with better
  precipitation chances arriving Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 20243

Cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes is the main weather story for
today, and the resulting gusty northwest winds, slightly cooler
temperatures and a few light showers across parts of the area. A
35-kt 850 mb jet on the west side of the Great Lakes upper low
will favor gusts as high as 40 mph across much of the area later
this morning through the afternoon, with the highest gusts over
western and southwest Minnesota where boundary layer mixing will
be deeper. A few gusts could approach wind advisory criteria of
45 mph across these areas, but held off on any headlines for
now since gusts should generally stay just shy of this
threshold. Cold air advection will also favor some scattered
light showers, mostly north and northeast of I-94 where better
low-level moisture will be available. Instability will be much
weaker and shallower than on Wednesday, and therefore should act
against any kind of hail/gusty wind threat with this activity.

Broad ridging will begin to build in from the west by Friday and
bring a return to near-normal temperatures, generally in the mid
70s. A weak upper wave passing to the north Friday night will
bring another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder
or two to much of the area. Limited moisture return and
instability will act against any strong storm or heavy rainfall
threat.

Heading into the weekend and early next week, quasizonal upper
flow will maintain near/slightly below-average temperatures for
much of the period before ridging gradually starts to return
toward the end of the week. Weak waves embedded in this pattern
will provide a few chances for rain, most notably Tuesday and
again Wednesday night/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Main concern today is gusty northwest winds which have already
begun gusting between 20-25 kts and will increase to 30-35 kts
later this morning and through the afternoon. Direction will
remain fairly consistent, generally from between 280 and 300
degrees. Will also see a broken VFR cumulus deck develop from
north to south later this morning and early afternoon, with a
few showers over eastern/central MN and western WI, mainly north
of MSP and RNH.

KMSP...Gusty northwest winds through the afternoon, could exceed
35 kts at times. Persistent wind direction between 280 and 300
through the day. Increasing clouds around 5kft through the late
morning and afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 15G25kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 15G25kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...DPH