Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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976 FXUS64 KMRX 060731 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 331 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Key Messages: 1. Additional scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon, drying out this evening and through the overnight. 2. Temperatures trending cooler tonight. Discussion: A surface boundary stationed to our north and a fizzling out MCV to our southwest have resulted in isolated to weakly scattered precip across the region. A few light showers could occur over the next few hours but the main impact overnight will be cloud cover resulting in above normal minTs. Coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms will increase mid-late morning into the afternoon. Model derived soundings from CAMs suggest MLCAPE should generally remain less than 1000 J/kg and limit strong/severe chances as cloud cover is expected ahead of the main line (approaching around the 16-22z timeframe). Rain chances trend downward this evening and into the overnight, through some isolated activity may lingering around. Height falls and winds veering to the northwest will result in a cooling trend overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Key Message: 1) Drier and cooler Friday through Saturday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms return Sunday. 3) Monday through the rest of the extended trending drier. Discussion: Overall, it`s a fairly quiet long term period. Drier and cooler air in place to start the period on Friday. Plenty of sun, slightly below normal temps, and dewpoints in the 50s will make for a marvelous day. I don`t advocate skipping work, but if you have a personal day that you need to use Friday would be the one to do it. Main forecast impact on Friday will be breezy winds due to a tight pressure gradient across the region and deep afternoon mixing. Valley winds will generally gust up to 20 mph and up to 35 mph across the higher peaks of the east TN mountains. Saturday is another dry day but clouds increase during the afternoon hours as a weak shortwave rolls through the area. On Sunday a deepening longwave trough and associated cold front will move through, producing showers and storms. No severe weather is expected at this time. Monday through the end of the extended have trended drier. This is because it now looks like Sunday`s cold front will make a clean sweep across the region, leaving drier air in its wake. However, NBM keeps POPs in place on Monday to account for a potential shortwave rolling in on the backside of the cold front. Though if precip occurs it will be very light, but overall chances of occurrence are quite low. NBM keeps some slight chance POPs in here and there from Tuesday onward to account for uncertainty but I`m not seeing anything that would suggest precip at this time. Will leave POPs alone though, mainly to hedge toward the uncertainty aspect. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Expect isolated to weakly scattered showers during the overnight, thus, have opted for vcsh at all sites. Very low chances of any thunder during this time frame. Ensemble guidance suggest around a 40-60% chance of MVFR cigs building into the region mid to late morning. Have only included this in tempo form given low-med confidence. Additional scattered showers and few storms will swing through the area this afternoon, although, highest confidence in vicinity activity exists at TYS and TRI. Southwest winds will generally remain between 5-15kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 65 84 60 / 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 62 80 58 / 60 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 60 80 56 / 40 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 59 77 53 / 60 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRS AVIATION...KRS