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FXUS65 KMSO 191950
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
150 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

...MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a trough and
low-pressure center moving through the region, causing showers and
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Showers are expected to
decrease in coverage this evening. The trough will remain over the
area on Monday, continuing the trend of below-average high
temperatures. Radar projections indicate showers and isolated
thunderstorms returning Monday afternoon due to instability aided
by daytime heating.

Model guidance agrees that north-central Idaho and western
Montana will be between troughs on Tuesday, leading to near-
average temperatures and isolated afternoon showers.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the forecast is becoming more certain
as model clusters converge on the path of a low-pressure system.
This system is expected to enter the region on Wednesday,
producing widespread rain by the afternoon. While there are still
some differences in the projected path of the low on Thursday,
most models indicate continued widespread precipitation. Snow
levels are forecast to drop to around 5,000-6,000 feet,
potentially impacting travel over mountain passes on Thursday
morning. There are even a few model members placing the low
pressure center in a position favorable for snow in the valleys.


&&

.AVIATION...Radar and satellite loops this afternoon show a
convective environment with showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing and expanding in coverage. Stronger cells have produced
gusts around 30 knots, brief heavy rain, and graupel or small
hail. Radar projections indicate that showers and thunderstorms
will linger into the evening and return Monday afternoon.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$