705
FXUS64 KOUN 291956
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
256 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

This Evening: Low (20-30%) storm chances remain along and east of
the I-35 corridor through ~sunset. Satellite imagery captures a
remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) meandering across portions
of north-central into northeast Oklahoma early this afternoon. As
surface insolation/heating continues, isolated precipitation
cores are expected to develop in vicinity of this feature. A
strong storm or two is possible (with a gusty wind/small hail
concern), as wind shear remains on the margin for organized
storms.

Thursday: Potential exists for multiple waves of storms on Thursday,
including intermittent/scattered severe outcomes, though timing and
coverage remain uncertain. An initial round/complex of storms is
possible by as early as ~2-4 AM Thursday morning, as previous
convection across the High Plains merges/consolidates along
advancing cold pools. A modest (20-30 kt) low-level jet along with
increasing mass flux into the area may ultimately promote
maintenance of a storm cluster/line into portions of
northwestern/western/west-central Oklahoma Thursday morning. This
includes some potential for severe weather (damaging winds and
hail) owing to sufficient instability and wind shear expected.

Depending on the exact evolution and coverage of the morning round
of storms/precipitation, potential exists for an additional/second
round during the evening into overnight period. A weak lee wave is
expected to slide into portions of the panhandles/southwest
Kansas by Thursday afternoon. This is forecast to instigate
convective development across these areas. Some CAM members
suggest that a semi-organized cluster of storms may ultimately
impact portions of western/west-central Oklahoma and western-north
Texas during the evening hours. This round of convection would
likely offer greater opportunity for severe weather owing to
stronger wind shear/instability in place (compared to the
morning). However, potential for boundary layer modification from
early day precipitation casts uncertainty in magnitude/favored
corridors of severe concern Thursday evening.

The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will also be closely
monitored over coming forecast cycles. Antecedent conditions (for
flooding) are most favorable across southern Oklahoma/western-north
Texas, where previous heavy rain has fallen early this week.
However, at least isolated flooding concern will exist across the
entire area if/where repeated rounds of heavy storms occur.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

At least low (20-30%) shower/storm chances remain evident through
much of the extended period. Grand ensemble guidance highlights
potential for the upper pattern to transition towards a dominant
western CONUS ridge by the middle of next week. In the meantime
(through early next week), quasi-zonal flow and an active
subtropical jet will foster potential for continued rounds of
convection from the High Plains into portions of our forecast area.
At this point, timing and impact of any one round of showers/storms
is uncertain, though climatology (with initial activity across the
High Plains during the afternoon/evening) would favor a peak in
convective potential during the late evening/early morning
periods.

For temperatures, a gradual increase in daily high temperatures is
expected from the late week into weekend. Thursday/Friday may
feature areas of below average afternoon temperatures (mid to upper-
70s), owing to cloud cover and early day precipitation. Near to
above average temperatures are expected by the next work week as
daytime precipitation chances diminish.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Most sites will remain VFR through the rest of the afternoon. The
exception may be in the eastern part of our area, where a low
chance exists for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Those
would bring attendant reductions in ceilings and visibilities.
Expect a reduction in ceilings to widespread MVFR just before
daybreak with some sites reaching down into the IFR category near
sunrise. A rather widespread round of storms is expected overnight
and early tomorrow morning, though timing remains uncertain. Winds
will remain on the modest side out of the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  78  63  77 /  20  60  80  80
Hobart OK         66  80  62  80 /  40  70  70  70
Wichita Falls TX  68  82  65  79 /  40  50  70  70
Gage OK           65  83  59  80 /  40  60  90  40
Ponca City OK     64  79  64  77 /  10  50  80  80
Durant OK         67  80  66  78 /  30  70  70  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...04